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An Early Spring?
The second half of 2011 is behind us, literally and figuratively.
2011 roared out of the starting blocks before veering off the recovery path beginning in the late summer or early fall. Around November, many forecasters were predicting the doldrums to remain through summer 2012. (Some are hewing this line.)
It looks like the industry wasn’t listening. Green shoots were already beginning to emerge, some forced to the surface by one-time events like the Thailand flooding, but others due to pent-up demand by consumers and businesses.
Several large and mid-tier EMS companies, including MFlex, Flextronics, CTS, Viasystems and Key Tronic have reported December quarter revenues that topped previous expectations. Component manufacturers and foundries like Vishay and UMC are calling a bottom. Broader manufacturing indices are looking better.
I think there remains a considerable amount of inventory in the chain, but much of this is held at distributors. Thus, models that heavily weight component manufacturer revenues are going to be a bit off while the rest of the chain works through their inventory conditions. But demand down the line is improving, and I think come this time next year, we will look at the September 2011 period as the trough.
Posted in Hot Wires
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Upcoming Chats
SMT process consultant Phil Zarrow’s moderated chat is today at 2pm Eastern.
You don’t need to make the live session in order to ask a question: questions may be submitted in advance.
Future chats will cover data transfer, PCB cleaning, environmental regulations and MSDS tracking, and on March 2 yours truly will take questions on this year’s Apex trade show.
Posted in Hot Wires
Tagged Apex, data transfer, environmental regulations, MSDS tracking, PCB cleaning, Phil Zarrow
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ECHA Submits New CLP Report
Classification, Labelling and Packaging (CLP) Regulation (CLP overview here) update: the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) submitted its study on communication of information on the safe use of chemicals to the general public. Submissions go to the European Commission (EC).
This CLP study provides insights on how to further improve hazard communication to EU citizens. Here are highlights and key points of the :
- Awareness among the general public of the new international hazard labels which appear on the packaging of chemical substances is mostly low but consumers rarely purchase these chemicals, the labels are relatively new and awareness will surely grow. However, work is needed at national, industry and EU level both to raise awareness and, crucially, understanding of what the labels mean.
- The perception of hazards varies among countries as well as between specific sub-groups of the general public. Awareness-raising activities therefore need to address national hazard perception patterns as well as the differing approaches to hazards exhibited by specific audiences such as families, single households, workers, school children, etc.
- Most people make their choices on the safe use and storage of household chemical products on the basis of their acquaintance with the product as well as other emotional drivers which rely more on experience than on information found on the package. Awareness-raising activities therefore also need to take into account these emotional and experienced-based drivers.
- Further analysis of the impact of the hazard labels on EU citizens’ behavior and understanding could be useful after 2015 – the date by which new labels must have replaced the old ones on all chemical mixtures like paint and glues for example.
CLP and product packaging
The CLP report by ECHA specifies that industry should be encouraged to bring product appearance and packaging more in line with the hazard information on labels, making use of behavioral drivers to amplify the label’s message, thereby promoting the appropriate safety behavior in consumers. Interestingly, this comes in conjunction with MEPs in Europe voting “no” to relaxing food labelling opportunity for food manufacturers: On Feb. 2 MEPs voted to ditch a European Commission plan for giving food producers new choices to promote products as having less fat, sugar or salt.
Changes to the CLP labels themselves are not recommended in the report. The study concluded there’s more benfit to allowing the public to get used to the new labelling system – now in use globally – steadily improving the overall understanding of hazards posed by chemicals and encouraging safer use of chemicals, household chemicals in particular.
Follow up According to CLP Regulation Article 34, the European Commission will, on the basis of the study, submit a report to the European Parliament and the European Council in order to, if justified, present a legislative proposal to amend the Regulation.
Posted in Green Thoughts
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Patty on Call
Let’s see how Patty is doing with the latest crisis …
Upon hearing Claire Perkins inform her that Rob was in the hospital, Patty froze and her face looked ashen. She quickly recovered and got her cell phone out to call Rob’s mother.
“Mom, what has happened to Rob?” Patty said, her voice quavering a little.
“He hurt his back at the gym, he can hardly walk. He collapsed under a heavy barbell. His head was injured too. He was unconscious for five minutes. I’m almost at the hospital now,” Rob’s mother, Hilde Gunther replied.
“I’ll see you there,” Patty said.
Both Sam and Mike insisted that someone take her to the hospital, but Patty refused.
Patty looked at her watch, it was 9AM. Rob was working a “swing shift” for six weeks and didn’t have to go into work until 10AM, so he went to the gym from 7:30 to 9AM most days. Patty had been teasing Rob that his workouts were getting too vigorous. She knew he was trying to snatch over 250 pounds as he was in a friendly competition with one of his friends, Fred, to see who would be the first to accomplish this significant feat. She wondered if this goal led to his accident.
The drive seemed to take forever, but soon she was at his emergency room bed. Rob was awake but his face was black and blue. Patty didn’t notice her mother-in-law, as she quickly ran to Rob’s side.
“Rob, what happened?” Patty cried.
“The good news is, I snatched 250!” he chuckled, which caused him to grimace in pain. “It was 260 pounds that was my downfall, I collapsed under the weight,” Rob went on.
“How bad are your injures?” Patty asked, a little frustrated with Rob’s levity.
“My back hurts so much, I can hardly walk, my face just looks bad. I’m going for an MRI in a few minutes, they’re worried I might have a slipped disk,” Rob answered, becoming much more serious.
Just then an MRI tech came.
“Well Mr. Gunther, we are going to squeeze you in, so I need to put you ‘On Deck’ for an MRI that opens up. Realistically, it could be two or three hours,” the tech commented.
Both Patty and his mother kissed Rob on the part of his head that wasn’t black and blue as he left. After Rob was taken away, Patty chatted with her mother-in-law for about 30 minutes.
Even though to some people it would seem strange, Patty had a way of compartmentalizing things, she knew she could not help Rob, except to pray for him which she had already done. So, she decided to do some work on her laptop. Fortunately the hospital had WiFi.
Patty had some unfinished business from what she learned on her trip investigating NMAC/I/O. She wrote an email to the GMs of the sites using that cheaper solder paste that had the response to pause problems or that required kneading before being used, suggesting that they change to one of two corporate-approved pastes that didn’t have these issues. She also wrote a note to the people that were using a full wavesoldering process for a PWB that had only two through-hole components, saying solder preforms should be used with the reflow process.
As Patty finished the emails, she observed the activities of the MRI section of the hospital where she was waiting. It occurred to her that this was a process, just like assembling electronics. Instead of stencil printers and component placement machines, there was an MRI machine. There were techs that ran the MRI machines, just as there were operators on an SMT line. The nurses were like the process engineers, and there were some medical doctors that were like mangers and execs at her company. Instead of producing electronics, the MRI section was producing MRI scans. There was little difference.
Patty got curious and she decided to ask the scheduling assistant a few questions.
“Excuse me, my husband is getting an MRI and I have a few questions,” she asked Sara Carter the assistant.
“Sure,” Sarah said, “go ahead.”
“About how much does an MRI scan cost?” Patty asked.
“It varies depending on the extent of the scans needed, but $3,000 is a good estimate,” Sarah responded.
Patty asked more questions and learned that there were 5 MRI units and she assessed the headcount and floorspace needed to support the MRI unit. She also found out that each of the 5 MRI units averaged 9 scans per day. It then occurred to her that she could use ProfitPro to estimate the cost of a typical MRI scan. Under The Professor’s tutelage she has gotten quite good at estimating burden labor rates, etc, which would be needed for the calculation. She got her laptop out and using ProftiPro, in a few minutes estimated that the hospital’s cost of an MRI scan should be only $390!
“Why does it cost our insurance $3,000?” she thought.
It then occurred to her that her good friend from her days at Tech, Emily Chen, was a radiology resident at the hospital. She decided to send her a note and, in addition to telling her about Rob, ask about the MRI scan cost.
After sending the email, she asked her mother-in-law if she would like to get a cup of coffee. In a short time, they were heading to the hospital cafeteria. Before they left, they found out that Rob was just starting his 45-minute MRI scan.
Fifteen minutes later they returned, and Patty was surprised that she had already received an answer from Emily.
“Patty, I’m so sorry to hear about Rob. You probably won’t hear the official news on his MRI until tomorrow, but I will take a look at it and call you later today. BTW, my boyfriend works in the finance department here. I’ll find out about the cost. But, your numbers sound way off.”
Twenty minutes later Rob was finished. His doctor had given him some pain killers and muscle relaxers, so Rob was a little more comfortable, but the doctor wanted Rob to stay overnight for observation. Rob soon fell asleep from the medication. Patty decided to stay with Rob and by 4PM, she asked her mother-in-law if she could pick the boys up from day care.
At 4:30 PM another email arrived from Emily.
“Patty, good news. I looked at Rob’s MRI scan and it looks fine. He probably just severely strained a muscle. He’ll be as good as new in a month or so” Emily’s note began. Emily’s note went on, ”My boyfriend looked up the cost for the hospital to run an MRI scan. You were close, it costs $410. Neither of us can believe it. Where does the extra $2600 go?”
Dr. Ron note: I have done some investigations into MRI scan costs. As surprising as it sounds, these numbers are about right, the base cost for a hospital to perform an MRI scan is in the $400 range, but they have to charge $3,000 to break even. Considering that many hospitals are non profits and are losing money adds to the confusion. At this point, I don’t claim to understand the cost structure of running a hospital, but one would think that one of the most critical questions in the current healthcare cost crisis in the United States, would be to understand why $3,000 must be charged for a $400 procedure to break even.
QFN Solder Paste Layer
I’ve got the fab order placed with Sunstone.com for my next demo project. The little board is represented here at pretty close to actual size on screen – provided you have a 22″ monitor set at 1680 pixel horizontal resolution. Give that, you might want to click on it to pop up a bigger representation of it. That makes it about 4X life size.
When you do that, take note of the QFN/DFN parts: The processor in the middle, the LiPoly battery charger right between the upper two mounting holes and the RS232 driver in the lower left. I’ve followed my paste layer advice and segmented the paste stencil layer to reduce the chance for float or major voids.
I found a footprint in the library for the big processor in the middle. I just had to modify the paste layer, as shown here. I made the footprint for the charger and RS232 chips from scratch. Neither had anything close enough in the library.
The DFN has a slightly different approach to segmenting the stencil layer. Little squares like I used on the other two chips work just as well, but this is effective as well.
Another thing to take note of is the markation on the LEDs. The original footprint for the 0402 LEDs does have a polarity mark, but it’s one of the types that can easily be misinterpreted or can be difficult to see. The diode symbol put down in silkscreen removes any possibility of ambiguity.
Duane Benson
I’m happy I live in a split level head.
Service Life
A reader writes:
My company makes an electronic product that requires a 40- year shelf life. We assemble with tin-lead solder on FR-4 PWBs. The product is to replace older technology (i.e. 1960-70s), but has some newer components such as BGAs, SOICs, and PQFPs. The product will be stored in dry nitrogen at 70F. We take great care in manufacturing, by cleaning, inspecting, and testing the end product.
My question is, Do you know of any studies that would discuss the reliability of products stored or in use for 40 years?
My sense is that our reader will be successful, but his question is profound and hard to answer with confidence. The military would like their electronics to perform for that long, but realistically much of it is replaced every 10 years or so. If you look at something like the B-52 bomber, which debuted in 1952, the electronics have been upgraded regularly. So there isn’t as much 40-year electronics experience as one might think. An exception being the IBM AP-101 computer. This computer was kept in service for over 30 years, because it served its function and had survived the rigorous and expensive military qualification testing.
However, anecdotal data might support optimism for 40-year shelf life. In a class I teach at Dartmouth, The Technology of Everyday Things, I have sought out some old transistor radios from the late 1960s and early 70s to show the class how this old technology works. Anytime I have every found an old device like this, they always work, unless the batteries have leaked inside the radio.
This question raises an interesting thought. Although those of us in electronics assembly are concerned with tin-lead and lead-free solder joint life, what about the modern devices inside the components? Forty years is a long time. How will the 3D-22 nanometer copper circuit lines in a modern microprocessor hold up over this amount of time? These circuit lines lines are so fine that the 22nm width is only about 70 atoms. In addition, copper integrated circuits are still a relatively new technology. I’m sure much accelerated life testing has been done on such circuits, but would such testing confirm 40 years of shelf or service life?
I would appreciate any thoughts that readers have on these questions.
Cheers,
Dr. Ron
Chatting Away
We had a great premiere of PCB Chat last week. Eric Bogatin, the signal integrity guru, hosted the nearly two hour session, answering more than 20 questions.
The transcript can be seen here (you must be signed in to Printed Circuit University to view it; registration is free).
The next chat will be Feb. 7 with SMT process consultant Phil Zarrow. Note that you don’t need to make the live session in order to ask a question: questions may be submitted in advance.
If you have recommendations for future moderators, drop me a line or post in the comments. Thanks!
Posted in Hot Wires
Tagged Eric Bogatin, networking, PCB Chat, Phil Zarrow, signal integrity, SMT
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Particle Update
I’ve been ignoring my Geiger counter for awhile now, but I picked it back up and made some progress again. For some reason, I just wasn’t getting the 555 based HV power supply to generate a high enough voltage. In frustration, I bypassed the 555 and fed a PWM signal in from a microcontroller board that I have laying around.
That fixed the problem. I still don’t know why I wasn’t able to the the 555 doing what it was supposed to do. I’ll have to spend some more time on that some other day, but for now, I’ve prototyped it out and I’m happily detecting particles. I whipped out the new layout and will send off to Sunstone.com for another set of PCBs.
I’ve also replaced the Atmel chip with a PIC. I don’t have anything against Atmel. I’m just more familiar with PICs. Once I’ve built a few of these, I’ll change to really small packages — QFNs or BGAs for the chips — to make the board a little more fitting with our assembly capabilities. The SOIC chips are fine, but our machines don’t even come close to breaking a sweat with things that big.
Duane Benson
We treat agoraphobia for PC boards
Can Cook Take the Heat?
CEO Tim Cook has taken to the Apple airwaves, rebutting claims made by The New York Times and others that company indirectly contributes to worker abuse but not rejecting Foxconn as a supplier.
In a letter, published yesterday by 9to5mac, Cook wrote, “Every year we inspect more factories, raising the bar for our partners and going deeper into the supply chain. As we reported earlier this month, we’ve made a great deal of progress and improved conditions for hundreds of thousands of workers. We know of no one in our industry doing as much as we are, in as many places, touching as many people.”
I’ll address the second point first. It’s true Apple has been singled out for bad corporate behavior toward Third World workers, while companies such as Dell and H-P are equally reliant on their supply chains (often the same suppliers), yet receive far less flak. It says here Apple is getting the brunt of bad publicity for good reason. The company has struck a wholly sanctimonious tone toward those who dared criticize its leadership. It has been strident in its support of Foxconn, the biggest (in size and in number of incidents) purveyor of recorded worker abuses. Apple on any given day is the largest (by market capitalization) company in the world. If a critic wants to make a point at a company’s expense, who better than Apple? Frankly, HP and Dell have been so beset by internal management problems, attacking them for supply-chain problems seems somewhat quaint by comparison.
As for the first point (“Every year we inspect more factories, raising the bar for our partners and going deeper into the supply chain.”), the truth is Apple does not visit every one of its suppliers every year. In 2011, Apple conducted 229 audits, 100 of which were first-time audits. According to the company, 97% of Apple’s procurement expenses are from 156 vendors. Incredibly, by Apple’s own admission, the logic says it audited many of its suppliers for the first time in 2011. (Either that, or the math isn’t working out, unless Apple is churning its supply base — composed primarily of well-known companies in their respective fields — with great rapidity, or that supply base is adding new plants with even greater rapidity, because the number of first-time audits has been at or over 100 three years running.)
I commend Apple for bringing some degree of transparency to the issue. But the numbers don’t quite add up. Nor does the nagging feeling that Apple, which perhaps has no parallel when it comes to leveraging a supply chain for competitive advantage, could effect positive change at places like Foxconn and Pegatron, if only it were willing to shoulder the financial risk.
When you have $100 billion* in the bank, you can afford to stop by each of your suppliers at least once a year. And when you’re the biggest company in the world, and apparently comfortable lecturing anyone else on what they should think, then you’d better be able to handle the blowback. If Cook can’t handle the heat, he should get out of the kitchen.