LOS ALTOS, CA -- Global electronics hardware output will rise a tepid 0.3% this year, but will improve through 2016, an industry analyst forecasts.

Continuing the roller coaster cycle of the past three years, sales are down this year from gains of 8.3% in 2011 and 15.8% in 2010, respectively. However, output plunged 9.1% in 2009, so by comparison, 2012 wasn't a total loss.

The coming cycle looks better, says Ed Henderson of Henderson Ventures. "Industry fortunes will improve along with the economy during the next few years with the help of low interest rates, greater policy clarity and postponed replacement cycles. Moreover, electronics will continue to be a "growth industry" in that its expansion rates will exceed those of the overall world economy," he wrote in his latest newsletter.

Henderson forecasts spending for electronic equipment will rise 5.7% next year and 10.2% in 2014. In both years, electronics equipment output will outpace the broader economic growth, he said. Henderson says electronics production will rise in the mid to high single digits in 2015-16 as well.