LOS ALTOS, CA -- Could sales of consumer electronics hit $1 trillion this year? The Consumer Electronics Association says yes, but an industry analyst believes those numbers are inflated.

When traditional consumer electronics -- entertainment, home and personal products -- are considered, the global consumer electronics market fell 3.6% to $279 billion in 2012 and will rise 1.8% and 3.5%, respectively, in the next two years before finally reaching $309 billion in 2015, Henderson Ventures forecasts.

This is in contrast to the CEA forecast, which predicts that the retail value of the global tech market will reach $1.1 trillion in 2013, $209.6 billion of which will come from the US.

The difference is that Henderson excludes computer, communications and medical electronics from its tally. Moreover, Henderson acknowledges the traditional consumer electronics industry has been "battered" by smartphones and tablets, which consolidate the need for multiple devices for music, gaming and other lifestyle options.

Henderson predicts contraction for standalone camera and modest growth for TVs during the forecast period. Home and personal electronics offer "exciting opportunities and solid growth," Henderson added.