FRAMINGHAM, MA – The appeal of low-cost and portable PCs will continue to drive double-digit growth of the PC market in 2006, despite fewer replacements and slower economic growth, according to IDC.

Following third-quarter growth of more than 17% year-on-year, worldwide PC shipments are now expected to grow by nearly 15% in the fourth quarter, boosting annual growth a half point ahead of the 15.3% rate in 2004 to 15.8% in 2005 and raising the outlook for growth in 2006 to 10.5%.
Although growth is still expected to slow in the months ahead, the recent strength of the overall market, and particularly in portable PC adoption, has contributed to rising expectations in all major regions except Japan.

"Following the shocks of 2001 and 2002 many people were impressed with the strength of the market in 2004 but cautious about the foundation and longevity of this growth," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC’s worldwide quarterly PC tracker. "The fact that solid double-digit growth has continued through 2005 shows that the market recovery did not peak in 2004 as many expected but is still ongoing. The market may slow in 2006, but persistent growth over the past several years shows the appeal of low-cost and portable systems and the potential for both a longer recovery and a higher rate of long-term growth."

The latest forecast update boosts growth from earlier projections of 12.6% in the fourth quarter of 2005, 14.1% for full year 2005, and 9.1% in 2006.

If the forecast holds, it would make 2006 the fourth consecutive year of double-digit shipment growth and raises the four-year CAGR for 2005-2009 to 9.4%.

Total shipments are expected to reach nearly 300 million units annually in 2009. Shipment value is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2006 with a CAGR of 3.6% from 2005-2009, increasing the value of shipments to more than $250 billion annually in 2009.

IDC called the outlook in the U.S. "fairly strong," led by booming portable demand and consistently strong growth in the business market.

More Growth in Store  Global PC Market

                                            '04           '05*          '06*          '06 % Change

U.S.                                                                                          

Consumer                             21.8            23.6            25.6            8.7%

Business                              36.5            40.6            43.8            8.1%

Total                                    58.3            64.2            69.5            8.3%

World                                                                                       

Consumer                             64.3            77.5            86.0            11.0%

Business                              115.1          130.2          143.5          10.2%

Total                                    179.4          207.7          229.5          10.5%

In millions of units. Source: IDC, December 2005