EL SEGUNDO, CA – Amid rapidly deteriorating conditions in the global economy and financial system, iSuppli Corp. has slashed its 2009 forecast for PC unit shipments nearly two-thirds.
 
iSuppli’s revised forecast predicts global PC shipments will rise 4.3% in 2009, down from its previous estimate of 11.9%. The forecast for 2010 calls for a 7.1% growth in shipments, down from the previous outlook of 9.4%.
 
Desktop PCs will suffer a shipment next year, declining approximately 5%, while notebooks will grow about 15%.
 
“Since iSuppli published its last worldwide PC forecast, the landscape of the global economy has changed dramatically, and in many ways irrevocably,” says Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst, compute platforms, for iSuppli. 
 
Wilkins notes established banking institutions have crumbled, with many requiring government aid to survive. The magnitude of the banking collapse has been so great that its impact on the availability of credit – and interest rates – has affected large corporations, small businesses and even the man on the street, he says.
 
“The result of the financial turmoil is less money to spend, and often that money is itself more expensive,” Wilkins says. “With less money to spend, application markets, like PCs, have been impacted.”
 
The PC market has been a buoyant end-application market for a long time, reporting annual growth rates around 10% for the past five years – with 2008 becoming the sixth year, as a result of 13% growth expected, says iSuppli. However, in light of the credit collapse that hit during the third quarter, prospects for the PC market in 2009 are not as positive as in previous years.
 
“Real issues – such as difficulties in paying staff, or making rising mortgage payments – are affecting businesses as well as consumers,” Wilkins said. “In light of such financial issues, the task of refreshing or acquiring new IT equipment has taken a back seat.”
 
The forecast of growth in notebook shipments arises from the fact that the segment is currently performing very well and has strong momentum – not to mention the attractive pricing for low-cost notebooks, known as netbooks. iSuppli believes demand for netbooks will show less of a reduction in 2009 than other notebook platforms, primarily because of their lower average selling prices.