LOS ALTOS, CA – Despite deteriorating economic conditions, third-quarter global PC shipments grew 14.8% year-over-year. The double-digit unit gains were created by strong demand in developing countries and the continuing transition to laptop computers, says Henderson Ventures.

However, the full force of the credit crunch is expected to pound down fourth-quarter demand worldwide. As a result, global unit shipments growth will decelerate from 14.7% last year to 10.8% in 2008, says the firm.

Severe regional recessions will constrain PC markets to only a 3.8% gain in 2009, Henderson adds. Without WiMax, and netbooks, unit growth rates would be negative during 2009.

An economic rebound, along with reinvigorated replacement cycles and technological advancements such as USB 3.0, will help create a 13.6% jump in PC shipments during 2010.

The combination of small unit PC gains, along with declining average sale prices, will create a financial downdraft for computer equipment manufacturers next year. World production values will fall 2.3% after a 5.2% gain this year, says Henderson.

With the exception of China, all the major computer-manufacturing regions will experience negative growth in 2009. US output will fall 6.2% next year, followed by a muted 4.1% advance in 2010. 

China will achieve only a 2.2% gain in 2009, followed by a 12.7% burst in 2010, says the research firm.