ARLINGTON, VA – The Consumer Electronics Association now projects fourth quarter wholesale shipment revenues will increase by 0.1% year-over-year. The original forecast issued in October anticipated 3.5% fourth-quarter growth over 2007.

New data shows the economy and consumer sentiment remain muted, and CEA surveys show overall spending is down this holiday season.

CEA's earlier forecast was based on shipment data, consumer surveys and economic analysis available in early October. Flat-panel TV shipment revenues in September, for example, were up 32% on unit volume and up 8% on revenue over 2007.

In October, unit shipment growth of flat-panels remained high at 22%, but shipment revenues dropped to negative 3%, impacting the fourth quarter forecast, says the association.

The revised holiday forecast also reflects new data indicating holiday shoppers are opting for smaller, less expensive TVs and other CE products purchased at discount retailers.

Cellphones will see 5% growth in the fourth quarter compared to last year, a projection revised downward from CEA's 11% growth forecast issued in October. Consumers are holding off on upgrading their handsets, while steeper than expected price declines are cutting into revenues.

Greater than expected discounts on laptops and an increased interest in lower-priced netbooks are impacting the computer category, which is now projected to post a year-over-year revenue decline of 2%, down slightly from CEA's earlier estimate of negative 1% growth.

CEA's Black Friday survey showed that roughly a third of adult consumers shopped between Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Fifty-four percent of consumers that shopped that weekend purchased a CE device, making it the second most frequent purchase product behind clothing, says CEA.