Prismark: Electronics Market to Decline 12% in '09
Published: 09 February 2009
by Staff
The drop would equate to loss of more than $170 billion in revenue year-over-year.
All sectors are expected to decline, with automotive electronics and cellphones being hit the hardest, followed by consumer electronics. The firm expects a modest rebound in 2010.
All sectors of electronics equipment, except military and aerospace systems, will see double-digit declines, Prismark said. This is unlike the recession of 2001-02, where the decline was largely confined to the communications and consumer sectors.
Prismark remains hopeful a recovery in electronics hardware can occur in the second half of 2010.
The semiconductor industry finished 2008 with a 2.8% decline, but was in rapid freefall in the fourth quarter. Prismark expects 2009 will see a 23% decline, adding this outlook may be optimistic. A modest recovery in 2010 is expected.
On a quarterly shipment basis, the firm does not expect the semiconductor industry to recover to 2008 levels until late 2010. Even with quarter-on-quarter growth in the second half of 2009, Prismark expects the year will end at the same quarterly shipment level as the fourth quarter of 2008, which was a very depressed level historically.
In the first half of 2009, IC unit volumes will drop to levels last seen in 2005; by the end of 2009, unit shipments will recover to levels last achieved in the first half of 2007. This does not bode well for equipment manufacturers’ businesses that are capacity driven, according to Prismark.
Front-end capacity utilization rates dropped precipitously in the fourth quarter of 2008; a recovery will not begin for several quarters, the firm says.
Bare boards will be hit as well, the firm predicts. The printed circuit industry can expect to see sales drop 16% in 2009, and muted growth rates during the next five years. It may be 2012 before the industry recovers to 2008 levels, Prismark said.
