BANNOCKBURN, IL – A new market research study on military and aerospace electronics suggests the costs of materials will force industry to go lead-free.

"Issues and Outlook for Lead-Free Electronics in Military and Aerospace Applications" examines the current and future state of lead-free usage in high-reliability applications.

The study examines the use of reballing lead-free assemblies to meet high-reliability requirements, and it estimates the average costs that this workaround typically adds to board production.

It also estimates the price differential of scarce components and identifies the tipping points at which the industry can be expected to go fully lead-free. These tipping points and other indicators are the basis for a 10-year forecast of the ratio of tin/lead to lead-free solder consumption.

In the end, the growing cost differential between leaded materials and components will force a shift to lead-free electronics in high-reliability applications, says IPC. The study provides a look at how manufacturers are coping with these problems and how this trend will affect the industry.

“Many manufacturers today must depend on a dual supply chain to accommodate both leaded and lead-free processes,” said Sharon Starr, IPC director of market research. “The study finds that maintaining dual processes, along with the growing scarcity of some leaded components, adds extra costs. This state of economic inefficiency is a burden on the industry.”