OYSTER BAY, NY -- And you thought your city has the worst drivers.

Ten percent of all traffic fatalities in the U.S. are pedestrians. In Europe, the figure is 20%, and in Japan, 30%. Legislation soon to be enacted in Europe and Japan will require that measures to protect pedestrians be introduced to automobiles starting late in 2005.

According to a new study from research firm ABI Research, the maturing of object detection algorithms in driver safety systems -- technologies such as Lane Departure Warning, ACC and Pre-Crash -- may provide the biggest push to this market's growth.
First generation pedestrian safety systems will be "reactive" types, says senior analyst Robert LaGuerra. These systems typically have sensors mounted in the bumper and "react" when there is an impact.


"Initially," he says, "these systems will be targeted at higher end vehicles with large engines and models with styling issues, and will remain so until future legislation has been finalized and 'active' safety pedestrian safety systems are available." Honda, Mercedes and other auto manufacturers have announced plans to incorporate pedestrian safety systems in the not so distant future.

The real market growth will only start when these "active," second generation systems begin deployment, ABI says. They will result from the convergence of first-generation pedestrian systems with automotive systems that provide image detection, initially using a combination of optics and radar. ABI predicts these systems will be more effective and cheaper than their predecessors.

Regional differences will emerge, with U.S. legislators and automakers far less likely than their overseas counterparts to address pedestrian safety.