BALTIMORE -- North American production of printed circuit boards will be flat this year, a leading analyst predicted.

Speaking Thursday at IPC's semiannual market research meetings, Dr. Hayao Nakahara said that production of circuit boards in North American rose 11% to about $5 billion last year, but that 2005's soft start makes it unlikely that growth will be achieved this year.

Dr. Nakahara, a PCD&M columnist who is widely recognized as the world's top authority on PCB production, said that North American-based PCB makers produced $890 million worth of high technology boards worldwide last year. Dr. Nakahara defined high technology as boards of 18 or more layers. The U.S. remains the top producer worldwide of such boards, with a 54% share, Dr. Nakahara said.

The figures do not include backplanes; the U.S. built $300 million worth of backplanes in 2004; about half the worldwide total, according to Dr. Nakahara.

However, North America's share of the overall PCB market is 14%, down from about 40% in 2000. Most of North America's loss has been China's gain: the nation has surged to 25% share, up more than 15 points during that period.

From 1995 to 2000 North American companies spent $4.8 billion on acquisitions of PCB capacity. Of that sum, just $1 billion worth remains open, Dr. Nakahara said.

PCB Production Forecast, 2005-07
                2005 2006 2007

China         34.0 26.0 16.0

N. America     6.0 2.0 1.0

Japan         1.0 1.2 1.4

Europe         1.0 1.0 1.0

S. Korea       22.0 15.0 10.0

Taiwan         15.0 7.0 5.0

Thailand       5.5 4.0 4.0

Source: N.T. Information Ltd., May 2005