ICs Headed for Fall Fall, Analyst Says
LOS ALTOS – Have semiconductor inventories gotten out of whack? That’s the assessment one researcher is concluding, saying that the disparity between strong sales of end-use items and the drop in IC shipments suggests a “major inventory adjustment.”
In its monthly newsletter, issued yesterday, Henderson Ventures said recent market data point to a drop in global shipments of 0.8% this year.Allowing that Intel and other makers are predicting spikes, Henderson says that bookings data compiled by VLSI Research show orders fell 10.7% during the June quarter and a flat book-to-bill of 1.0.
Unit shipments fells 4.1% in the June quarter, despite jumps in units of cellphones and PCs of 18% and 16%, respectively. The conflicting data suggest an inventory adjustment, Henderson said.
The firm says modest forecasts for equipment coupled with excess semiconductor fab capacity will foretell a 1.9% slide in 2006. The market will then recover to the tune of 14.4% growth in 2007, Henderson predicts.
