The China currency issue has become a political football because of manufacturing's insistence on a substantial revaluation and the Bush Administration's stated reluctance to hold China's feet to the fire. Hoping to capitalize on the issue's high profile in the November elections, U.S. labor, textile, and steel groups on Sept. 9 filed a petition known as a Section 301 seeking a formal investigation into China's currency policy. Hours later, administration officials denied it.
On Sept. 30, one Republican and seven Democratic senators joined nearly 20 House Democrats in refiling the petition. While a spokesperson said the Administration would meet with Congressional members, there is no indication any punitive actions against China would be taken.
A coalition of trade groups known as the Fair Currency Alliance has spent the past year pushing for a steep revaluation of the Chinese yuan. The FCA wants 40%, a number arrived at that because, according to one FCA member there are data to justify it and it gave some room to negotiate.
However, disagreement in the ranks prompted the FCA to redraft the petition but the actual refiling was left to the AFL-CIO. The FCA, whose members include the National Association of Manufacturers and IPC, operates on unanimous consent, IPC spokesperson John Kania told Circuits Assembly, and there was "heated debate" among its members as to whether to proceed with the filing. The AFL-CIO, steel and textiles industries advocating filing and NAM was strongly against it, according to Kania. While not saying the IPC was against filing, Kania said the group didn't want to alienate the Bush Administration. (Kania, who doubles as IPC's liaison to the SMEMA Council, a group of assembly equipment makers, said the council supports the petition because it affects customers.)
China's currency policy has for years rankled many U.S. economists and trade groups. China has said on several occasions it plans to comply with WTO currency rules but has yet to move in that direction. Says Kania, "The view of the Administration is that the Chinese knows they have a problem. They need to slow down their economy. Inflation is rampant, but to control it they need to raise interest rates." And China needs 8% annual growth just to absorb the crush of new workers, Kania says.
Kania expects that a Kerry presidency would mean more action, at least. "He's going to have to do something for manufacturing. Labor really backed him."