SCOTTSDALE, AZ – IC Insights raised its 2021 worldwide IC market forecast to growth of 24%. The global IC market is expected to exceed $500 billion for the first time.

Continued per-bit pricing strength in the DRAM and NAND flash markets, as well as an improved outlook for many of the logic and analog IC product categories are the driving forces behind the firm’s full-year forecast being raised. IC Insights previously expected 19% growth. Even excluding memory, the total IC market is expected to be up 21% this year.

After dropping 8% in 2019, the analog IC market registered a 3% increase in 2020. For 2021, the analog market is expected to surge 25%, with a 20% jump in unit shipments. As a result of the supply constraints in the analog IC market, a rare rise of 4% in the analog ASP is forecast for this year. The last time there was an increase in analog IC ASP was 17 years ago. Moreover, in 2004, the analog IC ASP was $0.60, compared to $0.32 in 2020, a 16-year CAGR of -4%.

Every major general-purpose analog and application-specific analog market segment tracked is expected to post a double-digit increase in 2021. The automotive application-specific analog segment is forecast to lead the way in analog market growth this year, with a 31% increase driven almost entirely by a 30% increase in unit volume shipments.

The total logic IC market is forecast to increase 24% in 2021. Logic markets that are expected to register >30% in growth this year include industrial (47%), automotive (39%), and consumer (38%) application-specific logic segments and the display driver category (31%). The ASP for logic ICs is forecast to drop 5% this year but will be offset by a 30% increase in logic unit shipments.

With the price per bit of DRAM rising 28% from 39 cents per Gb in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 50 cents per Gb in the second quarter of 2021, IC Insights raised its 2021 forecast for the DRAM market to 41%.  Moreover, it is expected the price per bit of DRAM will continue to rise in the second half of this year as supply remains tight.

The forecast for the NAND flash market is for 22% growth. The price per bit of NAND declined 26% from the first quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, but pricing stabilized in the second quarter of 2021 and is expected to increase over the remaining two quarters of this year. For 2021, the total memory market is forecast to be up 32%.

Worldwide IC market growth in 2021 is expected to be driven by a 21% jump in unit shipments and a 2% increase in ASP. A growth rate of 24% would be the third largest increase in the global IC market over the past 16 years, being surpassed only by the 33% surge displayed in 2010 and the 25% increase registered in 2017.