SARATOGA, CA - The decline in semiconductors that began in the second half of 2004 possibly came to a halt in January, according to a leading research firm. "Although it seems that the decline stalled in January, we discourage extrapolating this incident into the future as one month does not make a trend," warned Rosa Luis, director of marketing and sales at Advanced Forecasting. 

AFI said January's data shows a clear stagnation in IC revenues, which were flat month-on-month; units, which has begun to slow, indicating a bottom is near; and average selling price, which increased slightly in January after a slight decline in December. Historical data shows this is a rare occurrence in that ASPs do not tend to increase once they have begun a decline, AFI said.

"We remain optimistic that the current decline will end during the first half of 2005," said Luis. "We stand by our original forecast of a near zero growth rate for the full year."