SARATOGA, CA – Advanced Forecasting Inc., a research firm that claims to have correctly forecast 90% of the turning points in IC sales since 1987, said it would not modify its November forecast for IC revenues despite the strong first quarter performance.

The remarks ran counter to the SIA's recent decision to up its 2005 forecast. Last week, the trade group raised its forecast to a 6% gain.

IC revenues worldwide fell 1.5% sequentially in April and are projected to oscillate throughout the rest of 2005, resulting in an annual growth rate near zero, the firm said in a statement. IC unit sales rose 0.85% sequentially in April and are expected to continue the increase into the third quarter, AFI said.  

“Sales of IC units were robust in March, surpassing its March 2004 level of 8.5 billion units, following a seasonal minimum point in February,” said Dr. Moshe Handelsman, president. “Therefore, extrapolation of this event that leads to modifications in forecasts is unwarranted. April’s increase dampened the celebration since sales ended at 8.7 billion, 1.5% below  April 2004.” 

AFI's forecast that IC units would peak in mid-2004, decline in Q1 2005, and increase in Q2, said Rosa Luis, director of marketing and sales. "Actual shipments in both units and dollars are behaving exactly in line with what our models predicted.”