CHICAGO – The markets for electronics end-products and outsourcing will return to annualized growth of 5% over the next 12 to 24 months, following an estimated 9% contraction in 2009.

Those are the findings of InForum chief economist Matt Chanoff, who said the total available electronics manufacturing market will grow from $1.2 trillion this year to $1.4 trillion by 2013. 

He estimates the EMS industry will close this year down 19% to $103 billion, then will grow to $127 billion by 2013. 

The ODM market fell 7.8% this year to $107 billion, and is forecasted to grow to $135 billion by 2013, he said.   

A major influence on this year’s forecast was the manner in which InForum treated the revenues for Foxconn, which for the first time were not all included in the EMS sector, but broken out between the EMS and ODM industries.  

Automotive, medical and aerospace and defense are the segments with the greatest outsourcing growth potential, he said.

The research firm also said the regional footprint for electronics manufacturing continues to shift to Asia, although somewhat less aggressively than in past years, driven by demand for low-cost labor, available capacity, and ODMs diversification into automotive and medical. However, there are some counterweights. “Mitigating the shift to Asia is the rising cost of labor in China, OEM insourcing, and greater consideration of total cost of ownership in outsourcing decisions,” InForum analyst Eric Miscoll said.