EL SEGUNDO, CA – After experiencing a mild recovery in the second quarter, the global DRAM market is showing renewed signs of weakness, with prices expected to fall during the third quarter as a result of bloated inventories, says iSuppli Corp.

After iSuppli upgraded its rating of near-term conditions for DRAM suppliers to neutral, up from negative on April 25, the market bottomed out and manufacturers’ profitability improved during the second quarter. Following months of losses, a few top-tier suppliers managed to attain profitability starting in June, and a handful are expected to do so in the third quarter.

However, the market is showing renewed warning signs, with OEM contract prices for DRAM likely to decline in August and September, says the research firm.

“The average DRAM contract price is expected to decline by more than 10% from the current level by the end of the third quarter,” predicted Nam Hyung Kim, director and chief analyst, memory ICs, at iSuppli. “The inventory level in the channel and among PC OEMs has increased compared to the second quarter. Global economic conditions are adding more uncertainty on the demand side of the equation.”

DRAM shipments exceeded expectations in the second quarter, causing prices to decline in the third quarter. iSuppli’s preliminary estimate is that DRAM unit shipments increased by 15% sequentially, much higher than the anticipated 10% rise.

“The higher-than-anticipated increase in unit shipments in the second quarter signals that excess inventory is being shifted from the DRAM suppliers to the buyers,” Kim noted.

iSuppli is maintaining its neutral rating for DRAM market conditions for suppliers at this time. However, iSuppli will continue to watch near-term developments in market fundamentals to determine if a rating update is required.

DRAM suppliers now are reducing their capital spending levels, a development that eventually will cause supply levels to become more constrained and prices to rise – leading to a recovery in the industry, says iSuppli. However, this recovery is likely to take place slowly.

DRAM wafer output will rise by a small margin of only 10% in 2009, compared to 40% in 2007, iSuppli predicts. However, the top-2 DRAM suppliers, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. and Hynix Semiconductor Inc., are engaging in an aggressive migration to the sub-60 nm manufacturing process, boosting their output and raising the risk of further oversupply that may linger into the first half of 2009, says the firm. This could delay a market recovery until the second half of 2009. 
 

On April 25, iSuppli predicted the NAND flash memory spot market price rally that occurred early in the second quarter would be short-lived, a forecast that proved correct, the company says. After iSuppli slashed its NAND flash forecast early this year, the market has been mired in terrible conditions, primarily as a result of a major inventory overhang and weak consumer spending that has led to oversupply.

However, suppliers have been adjusting to the oversupply ever since. Because of this, the supply/demand equation is expected to come back into balance by the fourth quarter, according to iSuppli. This means NAND flash suppliers will suffer for one more quarter before pricing should begin to recover.