Following declines of 8.4% in the fourth quarter 2008, 9.2% in the first quarter 2009 and 5% in the second, overall prices are expected to undergo a short-term rise in the third quarter. Most components actually are expected to experience price declines in the third quarter, but the average is being skewed by DRAM, the firm said. Prices will begin declining again in the fourth quarter, with a moderate 0.2% decrease.
“Overall component pricing is being heavily impacted by price hikes for DRAM, spurred by a shortage of DDR3 parts,” said Eric Pratt, vice president, pricing and competitive analysis, at iSuppli. “Overall DRAM pricing is expected to rise by 10.2% in the third quarter.” With DRAM accounting for 9.1% of global semiconductor revenue in 2008, the price increase in this area is having an inordinate impact on overall component costs.
Other areas seeing price increases include analog ICs, discretes and filters.
Pricing will decrease moderately during the third quarter for most major memory segments. NAND flas will experience a 0.3% decline, NOR pricing will decrease 1.1%, and EEPROMs will remain flat. Declines also are expected for standard logic ICs, crystals, oscillators, connectors, resistors and magnetics. An overall decline is expected for capacitors. Despite these decreases, the overall rise in the PPI indicates pricing conditions are changing for commodity components. “iSuppli previously expected price decreases would be of a greater magnitude in the third quarter as commodity component suppliers cut tags to capitalize on rising demand,” Pratt said. “However, semiconductor suppliers have scaled back their capacity significantly during the downturn. This means supplies are somewhat tighter than expected, preventing prices from declining as much as expected.”