STAMFORD, CT – The worst may be over for the PC industry, as worldwide PC shipments are on pace to reach 285 million units in 2009, a 2% decline year-over-year, says Gartner Inc.

The revised forecast is more optimistic than the firm’s June prediction, which anticipated a 6% unit decline in 2009.

"PC demand appears be running much stronger than we expected back in June, especially in the US and China," said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner. "Mobile PC shipments have regained substantial momentum, especially in emerging markets, and the decline in desk-based PC shipments is slowing down. We think shipments are likely to be growing again in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to the fourth quarter of 2008."

Despite this, Gartner does not envision global shipments experiencing growth this year, except as a best-case scenario. PC units contracted 4.4% in the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2008. For PC shipments to post growth for the year, shipments would have to grow year-over-year at least 4% in the second half of 2009. Gartner believes that scenario is beyond the market's capability, even with the Windows 7 Oct. 22 release.

"We don't expect the release of Windows 7 to significantly influence PC demand at year-end," Shiffler said. "At best, Windows 7 may generate a modest bump in home demand and possibly some added demand among small businesses. However, we aren't expecting most larger businesses, governments and educational institutions to express strong demand for the new operating system until late 2010. We're actually more concerned that vendors will overestimate the initial demand for Windows 7 and end up carrying excess inventories into 2010."

Mini-notebooks continued to grow strongly in the second quarter, but faced increasing competition from lower-priced mainstream notebooks, says the firm. They continued to put downward pressure on PC prices in general, and consumer mobile PC prices in particular.

Worldwide mini-notebook shipments are now forecast to reach 25 million units in 2009, up from the firm’s projection in May of 21 million shipments. Shipments are now forecast to reach 37 million units in 2010. Even so, mini-notebooks' share of the overall mobile PC market is now expected to level out sooner than before.

"At least unit-wise, 2010 should be a considerably better year for the PC market," Shiffler noted. "We now expect units to grow 12.6% next year, as mobile PC growth continues to gain momentum and desk-based PC growth turns positive, thanks to revived replacement activity. However, we don’t see the ongoing declines in PC average selling prices slowing down significantly next year, so spending is likely to be more or less flat in 2010."

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