FRAMINGHAM, MA – Worldwide semiconductor revenues will grow 9% year-over-year in 2011 to $303 billion, and will achieve a CAGR of 6% for the 2010 to 2015 forecast period, according to International Data Corp. Revenues will hit nearly $380 billion by 2015, the firm says.

This follows the strong recovery in 2010, which produced growth of 23% compared to 2009.

The computing segment represents about 40% of all semiconductor revenues and will show year-over-year (2011) and CAGR (2010-2015) growth rates of 7% and 6%, respectively, after registering revenues of $113 billion in 2010.

While smartphone sales drove semiconductor revenues for the communications segment to a record $80 billion in 2010, there is continued pricing pressure on cellular baseband and connectivity chipsets, especially in the low end of the market in China, says the firm. Long-term volume growth, however, remains robust, as demand for these chipsets extends beyond smartphones.

IDC also sees solid long-term telecom spending, given the continued growth of IP traffic, the growth of smart devices on the network, and the spending levels of service providers. IDC forecasts year-over-year (2011) and CAGR (2010-2015) growth rates of 9% and 5%, respectively, for the communications segment.

High growth in semiconductor revenues from media tablets, e-readers and LED/LCD TV sets is helping to balance flat or decreased revenue growth from traditional consumer devices, such as DVD players and game consoles, from 2011 to 2015. As a result, the consumer segment will see year-over-year (2011) and CAGR (2010-2015) growth rates of 10% and 5%, respectively, says IDC.

The automotive and industrial segments are expected to be long-term growth drivers for semiconductor revenues. Together, these segments are forecasted to log 13% and 10% growth rates, respectively, for year-over-year (2011) and CAGR (2010-2015), with growth driven by increased automobile sales worldwide and increased semiconductor consumption in applications such as infotainment, safety and diagnostic systems, engine control, energy/battery management, M2M, smart grid, LED lighting and factory automation.

Among semiconductor devices, revenues for microprocessors, microcontrollers, ASSPs and analog devices are expected to show a CAGR of 8% to 9% between 2010 and 2015, but both Flash and DRAM revenues, which were impressive in 2010 ($63 billion), will decline with a combined CAGR of 0% to 1% for the period.
Regionally, as expected, Asia/Pacific continues to grow its share of semiconductor revenues, reaching more than 43% in 2015, according to the firm.

“Near term, the semiconductor market should hit bottom by the second quarter of next year and begin a growth cycle that will take us into the second half of 2012,” said Mario Morales, vice president, semiconductor research at IDC.

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