SCOTTS VALLEY, CA -- Seagate today gave firmer guidance for its hard drive shipments over the next two quarters, saying the total units delivered would be at the low end of previous guidance.

In an SEC filing, the hard disk drive maker said the Thailand floods have caused more severe disruptions to the HDD supply chain, causing it to project total industry shipments of 110 million to 120 million units for the quarter. Seagate expects to be able to ship 41 million to 45 million units, at the low end of the company's Oct. 20 guidance.

According to IHS iSuppli, disk drive shipments will drop 28%, or 48 million units, in the fourth quarter.

Ironically, some analysts see a potential upside to the disaster, pointing to the prospect of higher margins brought about by reduced capacity.

Deutsche Bank senior analyst Sherri Scribner wrote in a research note today, "Despite the significant shortfall in total available market this quarter, we believe Seagate and the industry will see a gross margin benefit from HDD supply disruptions. As we have already begun to see in the channel, limited availability of HDDs is driving prices higher and pricing is the primary driver of gross margins. The cumulative benefit of higher prices will also be a benefit to future pricing and profitability, as HDD pricing is set based on prior quarter prices."

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