SANTA CLARA, CA – After a tepid 2011, global TV unit shipments are expected to rise 2% to 254 million units this year, on higher demand for LCD models.

That’s up over the 0.1% growth in 2011, says NPD DisplaySearch, which also notes demand for flat panel models is moderating.

Flat panel TVs continue to grow, but at a more gradual pace of 2% to 4% annually, as the rapid transition from CRT to LCD and plasma nears an end, the firm says.

LCD TVs continue to be the dominant technology on a unit and revenue basis, and seem likely to capture even more market share because of a weaker outlook for plasma TVs going forward. As LCDs narrow the pricing gap with plasmas at many sizes, the demand for plasma has fallen. NPD DisplaySearch expects this to continue and has reduced its forecast for plasma TVs.

Large TV sizes also continue to show strong growth, with shipments of 40" and larger sets expected to grow 12% in 2012, while smaller sizes are forecast to decline 3%. A strong contributing factor to the growth of larger sizes, including an 18% increase in shipments of 50"-plus sets, is pricing. Sizes up to 50" will have average prices below $1,000 in 2012, and even 60"-plus sizes will fall below $2,000 for the first time, says the research firm.

During Black Friday holiday sales in the US, many 40" to 47" sets were below $500, and even 60" sets fell below $1,000, prompting robust unit sales, as consumers were attracted to the new price points.

Many consumers seem to be willing to give up features in favor of larger sizes for a given TV buying budget. Even in China, shipments of 50" and larger sizes are growing strongly, and it may become the only region outside of North America to reach a 10% mix of 50"-plus unit shipments by 2015.

LCD TV shipments will rise to 225 million units in 2012, up 9% year-over-year. LCDs will account for more than 82% of all global TV shipments in 2011, up more than 88% in 2012, as demand for plasma falls and OLED TVs arrive late in the year in small quantities and at high prices. LCD is now a strong competitive technology at all sizes and should climb to more than 95% share by 2014, as CRT fades and OLED is slow to grow, says the firm.

Premium features continue to grow, like LED backlights and 3D, and are keeping LCD TV average prices very stable, falling just 6% year-over-year on a volume weighted basis in 2011, the slowest year of LCD TV price erosion yet.

Price erosion will be about the same in 2012 before picking up to 7% to 8% per year through 2015, but much less than the 24% decline seen in 2009. However, with the slower ASP erosion, total LCD TV revenue growth should remain positive through 2013 at 1% to 3% annually. The share of LED backlights in LCD TV shipments is expected to be about 46% in 2011, rising to nearly 68% in 2012. 3D will account for around 3% of LCD TV units this year.

Plasma TV units grew 30% in 2010 as a result of favorable pricing advantage over LCDs, but as that advantage has narrowed in 2011, shipments are expected to fall 11% to 16.3 million units. The decline in unit growth and weak profits has led manufacturers to focus on more profitable segments, even at the expense of unit growth. As a result, plasma TV shipments are projected to fall to fewer than 10 million units by 2015.

The first OLED TV shipments are expected in the second half of 2012, but due to prices that are expected to be well above $4,000 initially and remain significantly higher than mainstream high-end LCD TVs, they will only grow to about 2.5% of the 40"-plus segment by 2015, says NPD DisplaySearch.

The worldwide forecast for 3D TVs slightly increased to more than 23 million units in 2011, with better than expected growth in emerging markets and Europe. By contrast, demand in North America has been surprisingly soft for 3D, and may only reach 3.6 million units in 2011, as US consumers remain price sensitive. Eventually though, North America will see a rise in 3D adoption as a result of stronger preference for 40"-plus sizes, where the 3D feature is common and expected to be less costly. Globally, 3D TV is expected to rise to more than 100 million units shipped by 2015.

Emerging regions, including China, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Middle East/Africa, will account for the majority of flat panel TV growth over the next four years, averaging 11% growth each year, while developed regions decline an average of 1% each year. In fact, China has become the largest market for flat panel TVs and will continue to be throughout the forecast period. The Asia Pacific region is positioned for strongest growth, as the late-adopting India market begins to boom.

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