SANTA CLARA, CA -- Most metrics used to measure the health of the flat-panel display industry reflect current severe challenges; however, long-term supply/demand modeling now suggests that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

That's according to the latest NPD DisplaySearch report, which suggests some light at the end of the tunnel.

“The FPD industry may soon begin to right itself through the cyclical nature of market forces,” said Charles Annis, vice president of manufacturing research at NPD. “Delays in capacity expansion in 2012 and 2013 combined with continuously increasing demand are expected to finally start pushing the industry towards a healthier future.”

With FPD makers having lost money for the past six quarters in a row and the FPD industry being in the midst of its longest down turn since its creation, panel makers have now frozen almost all expansion plans for LCD TV fabs. At the same time, lower prices are driving increased demand, particularly for large (50”+) TVs. In its recently released report, NPD predicts that the net effect will be a tightening of the supply/demand balance, particularly in 2013, when the glut ratio is forecast to fall well below 10% for the first time since the second quarter 2010. This is expected to set off another crystal cycle of improved panel pricing, higher profitability and increased investment.

Figure 1: Supply/Demand Balance (000 m2/Quarter)

<Source: NPD DisplaySearch

Although the overall FPD equipment market is expected to suffer a severe recession in 2012, falling 63% from 2011, the market is forecast to rebound in 2013, driven in large part by spending on new AMOLED production lines.

Mass production of IGZO-based LCDs, which enable super high resolution, brighter and more efficient displays, started in the fourth quarter 2011. Initially, IGZO will focus on LCD tablet and ultrabook display markets, but will likely see wider use in super high resolution large LCD TVs and some AMOLEDs. IGZO is expected to grow continuously in the future.

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