SANTA CLARA, CA – Better technologies are shrinking the global TV replacement cycle, which in the past year has fallen to 6.9 years from 8.4, says NPD DisplaySearch. The research group attributes the trend to declining prices, a wider variety of sizes, and desire for the latest technologies.

In the next year, 31% of households are planning to replace an existing TV, while 22% are planning to add a new TV, based on a study of consumers across 14 different markets.

“The rate of TV replacement varies, but on a global basis, the majority of households are still replacing CRT TVs with flat panel TVs. We are also observing mature markets, such as the US, the UK, and others, replacing their first-generation flat panel TVs,” said Riddhi Patel, NPD DisplaySearch research director, consumer insights. “Overall, LCD TVs in the range of 32" to 44" are the most popular for planned purchases.”

The most critical driver of TV replacement in nearly all countries is a desire to trade up in size, followed by wanting to own a flat panel TV with improved picture quality, says NPD. Although price is not among the top three reasons for recent replacements, it does have an impact on the purchasing decision. Thus, pricing can be a key driver in increasing flat panel TV penetration (by replacing CRTs) and shortening the replacement cycle (by replacing older flat panel sets).

As TV prices fall and profit margins are compressed across the supply chain, the push to introduce new premium features has taken on increased importance, says the research firm. The hope is that these new features, such as 3D and Internet connectivity, will drive consumers to replace TVs faster. However, results suggest otherwise, as these new features were reported to be only somewhat important in selecting a new TV, and not a strong motivator to upgrade.

“The good news is that a large number of markets still have a long way to go toward replacing all CRTs with flat panel TVs, which should continue to sustain growth, but mostly in emerging markets,” Patel said.

Other findings include:

Moving one’s household to a new location was found to be a very weak driver in all markets surveyed.

Nine markets in the study have more than 50% penetration of flat panel TVs. There are still five markets with 40% of households having only CRT sets.

The average age of the primary TV in households ranges between 4 and 7 years, with India the highest at 6.7 years and China-Urban the lowest at 3.5 years.

Households in emerging markets, such as Russia, Brazil, Mexico, and China, are much more likely to be planning to either replace or add TVs than in the US and European countries.

Over 40% of households in China are planning to replace their first-generation flat panel TVs, similar to the rates found in mature markets.

32" remains the most desired size in the majority of emerging markets, whereas 40" to 44" sizes dominate planned purchases in mature markets.

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