Modest Equipment Gains Expected Through 2014, Analyst Says
LOS ALTOS, CA -- Equipment suppliers hoping for a big Christmas surprise may be disappointed this year.
While global electronics equipment sales have typically followed predictable seasonal patterns, this year's results have failed to behave.
The seasonal summer slump extended through the third quarter, and October data suggest a feeble fourth-quarter upturn, says Ed Henderson of Henderson Ventures.
In his monthly newsletter, Henderson said only the automotive industry is bringing much cheer to the supply chain. His analysis suggests overall global output of 3.9% for 2012, flat with 2011.
A pickup of 5.1% is forecast for 2013, followed by a 7% jump in 2014, Henderson says. However, by region, the gains will be "uninspiring," with China the easy leader in growth.
The US is forecast to see a 2.1% increase, up from a drop of 3.9% this year, as lower military electronics production takes its toll. Western Europe will be hampered by the ongoing recession and slowing automotive electronics demand, tapering to a 1.5% gain. Japan's output will "improve" from a 7.1% fall in 2012 to a 2.4% drop in 2013 on major OEM cutbacks and the strong yen, which drives manufacturing offshore.
The Four Tigers are forecast to grow 5.3% and China will jump from 1.6% growth in 2012 to 7.1% in 2013, Henderson said.
