PASADENA, CA – Continuing electronics supply chain challenges at the beginning of this quarter suggest there will only be pockets of relief through the remainder of 2022 and into 2023 for many commodities, according to new data from Supplyframe.

Through the first quarter of 2023, more than 70% of lead times are forecast to increase. During that time frame, analog, complex semiconductor (ASICs, MCUs, MPUs and PLDs), flash memory, non-ceramic capacitor, resistor and standard logic devices are forecast to rise in price with very limited exceptions. Most of the same devices will also remain at or exceed already elevated lead times.

Commodity supply tightness and cost inflation are impacting most inputs across categories. This includes shortages of resin feedstocks and additives, increasing costs for fuels and metals, and challenges related to the affordability and availability of labor and freight capacity.

“Geopolitical uncertainty and wide-ranging impacts from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, persistent global inflation and recurring Covid-19 outbreaks continue to wreak havoc and test beleaguered industry supply chains,” said Supplyframe CEO and founder Steve Flagg.

The second quarter began with nearly half of all Supplyframe Commodity IQ dimensions worsening, and the number of pricing indicators in the red grew 16% sequentially.

Things are not expected to improve as the quarter progresses, the company says. Commodity IQ expects 85% of all pricing dimensions to increase and 83% of all lead time dimensions to extend this quarter.

“Sustained Covid-19 eruptions in two-thirds of Chinese provinces and elsewhere in Asia are prompting government-mandated shutdowns and strict containment protocols, creating further labor limitations, straining supply and introducing new supply-chain disruptions,” said Richard Barnett, chief marketing officer and SaaS sales leader, Supplyframe.

One category that remains particularly stubborn and hostile is the active components market. From analog power to standard logic to ASICs and sensors, this space will be swimming in a sea of red indicators for the next four quarters. This is happening as strong demand continues; production is at capacity; there are extended lead times; and rising prices plague most devices.

Passive components are not as constrained as active ones. However, like active components, passive commodities also suffer from raw material challenges and labor shortages.

“The electronics supply chain continues to face new and unprecedented challenges,” said Flagg. “But leveraging new forms of intelligence can help these companies better understand and manage risk, build resiliency into their new product designs and expand their opportunities.”

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