TAIPEI – TrendForce has reduced its 2025 notebook brand shipment growth forecast from 3.6% to just 1.4%, citing continued economic headwinds and uncertainty over tariff policy. The downgrade comes despite a 90-day US grace period before reciprocal tariffs take effect.

Currently, the US has no tariffs for notebooks from Southeast Asia, but imports from China face a 20% duty. This has accelerated a regional shift in supply chains toward Vietnam, Thailand and other locations. US-based brands are benefiting most, having already invested in Southeast Asia, while non-US players are lagging.

TrendForce cautions that failure in tariff negotiations could lead to further supply cost pressures and price hikes in the second half of 2025, possibly dragging full-year shipment growth into the red at minus 2.1%.

“Brands will likely adopt more conservative strategies if China retaliates or US tariffs increase,” said TrendForce. “There’s still a chance for stabilization if talks result in moderate tariffs.”

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