BOSTON, MA – Worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to fall 12.9% in 2026 to about 1.1 billion units, marking the largest annual decline on record as a global memory shortage disrupts the consumer electronics supply chain, according to new data from IDC.

The decline would bring the smartphone market to its lowest shipment volume in more than a decade. IDC said the updated forecast reflects a significant downward revision from earlier projections as the memory supply crisis intensifies.

Rising memory prices are increasing component costs for device manufacturers, particularly for low-end Android vendors that operate on tighter margins. Many manufacturers are expected to pass higher costs to consumers, reshaping the competitive landscape of the smartphone industry.

IDC analysts said premium vendors such as Apple and Samsung may be better positioned to navigate the shortage, potentially gaining market share as smaller and lower-cost Android suppliers struggle with supply constraints and rising costs.

The shortage is also expected to change the structure of the market. IDC projects smartphone average selling prices will rise 14% in 2026 to a record $523. At the same time, the sub-$100 smartphone segment, currently representing about 171 million devices annually, may become permanently uneconomical due to higher component prices.

Regionally, markets with a high concentration of entry-level smartphones are expected to see the steepest declines. Shipments in the Middle East and Africa are forecast to drop 20.6% year over year, while China and the broader Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan are expected to decline 10.5% and 13.1%, respectively.

IDC expects memory supply conditions to stabilize by mid-2027, allowing for a modest 2% recovery in smartphone shipments that year. A stronger rebound of 5.2% growth is projected for 2028.

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