Predicting the future is tricky, especially when we don’t yet know the players.

With over 40 years of new business development and marketing experience in the electronics manufacturing marketplace, no sales team requirement produces more dread, apathy or frustration than when we hear, “It is time for your new business forecast for next year.” Contract negotiations, board meetings, airplane travel after 9/11, Covid-induced supply-chain issues, dealing with your cable company and dental appointments; none of these compares to the angst sales leaders experience when forecasting new business from new clients they hope to win and have no current business relationship with.

Is there a less exact science to any required report or activity for salespeople than forecasting clients with whom you have no historical relationship and are competing against other EMS companies to win? Let’s examine some of the truths behind this requirement.

When we consider some of the variables that can affect an accurate, next-year new business forecast, it seems staggering:

Leveraging local and state stakeholders for future growth.

One positive of the last election is that the Trump administration is pro-US manufacturing and is considering tax incentives to reward companies that manufacture in the US and tariffs to punish countries restricting US-made goods. That creates both opportunities and challenges for the electronics manufacturing services (EMS) industry.

Tariff policy is definitely a looming challenge. The earlier China tariffs had the net effect of driving production to Mexico since components imported into Mexico were typically not subject to tariffs and could be reimported without duties once transformed in Mexican-made products. That may change, as Chinese companies have invested heavily in Mexican manufacturing to avoid tariffs. Tariffs may also impact the attractiveness of facilities in countries subject to them.

You never know what you’ll find in the bushes.

A simple concept: Business development should qualify each lead or prospect to determine if the electronics manufacturing services company’s resources will be spent pursuing that prospective client.

The decision of “fit” should be the job of the senior business development professional, not the CEO, GM, COO or CFO. Elements of fit include the end product’s viability, the prospect’s financial standing, the tooling and capital equipment required to complete the job, the floor and warehouse space needed (in the case of a box-build program) and other elements of the deal.

How does a company know the fit is right unless properly vetted by a biz dev professional?

Case in point: When I was vice president of sales and marketing for a Florida-based mid-tier EMS, I received an intriguing call from an inventor in South Florida. I agreed to meet him at our factory to understand the product and requirements. After giving explicit directions to our visitors’ entrance, my admin called to say he arrived at the employees’ door. As an ITAR facility, specific protocols must be followed for proper vetting and sign-in. I asked the admin to let my guest in and escort him to the conference room after he executed the proper procedure and signed the appropriate paperwork.

2025 could bring demand spikes and component availability tightening. Are you prepared?

Hurricanes Helene and Milton delivered unprecedented damage throughout the Southeast US. Rebuilding efforts will take years in some locations. In western North Carolina, some people lost their homes, their families and their employers. In those cases, it isn’t a matter of just rebuilding a home; they are rebuilding their entire lives. Sadly, while everyone contributes when the disaster is in the news, those contributions stop when the news cycle moves on.

So, before I start my column on the business upside of natural disasters, I encourage everyone to remember the impacted communities. Personally, I’m budgeting to keep giving to charities helping those areas for the next several months. I’m also buying from companies in North Carolina to help local businesses stay in business.