Management decisions threaten the entire electronics industry.

The simple chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Chains have been used for centuries to connect and secure everything from ships to anchors during a storm, large and heavy payloads onto trailers for transport, and more recently, businesses to customers and suppliers for commerce.

Chains are subject to many challenges. Rust and corrosion are the most obvious potential causes of failure for metal chains. Temperature and chemical exposure can cause failure with plastic chains, and politics, as well as epidemics, can test the strength and tenacity of the chains of commerce. And human error challenges each and every one.

Global supply chains have been created, nurtured and evolved into what could best be characterized as one of the most efficient systems ever utilized in the history of manufacturing. The global supply chain that supports our electronics industry in particular has enabled amazingly cost-effective production of high-quality materials, supplies, sub-assemblies and finished products, enabling much higher overall value. The scope of the supply chain is extensive, touching everything from raw materials to consumer products to industrial equipment, and includes not just finished products but also the spare and replacement parts necessary to keep everything functioning long after a product goes into service. This continues to take place despite the pulling, twisting, stressing and testing of each chain’s links over and over again over the past decades.

Naka nailed it: The domestic PCB industry will flounder without a clear direction.

“History is always repeating itself, but each time the price goes up.” – Will Durant

In February 2017, I wrote a column titled “An Afternoon with Naka” in which Hayao Nakahara (or Naka to his friends) – a true PCB veteran embarking on his 60^th year in the industry – described the state of the US PCB manufacturing. Naka nailed it then. And eight years and two presidential administrations later, his analysis is just as applicable.

Let’s review some of what I call his “Naka-isms” and how they apply, with the additional element of tariffs, which, for obvious reasons, are top of mind for many in our industry right now.

Predicting the future is tricky, especially when we don’t yet know the players.

With over 40 years of new business development and marketing experience in the electronics manufacturing marketplace, no sales team requirement produces more dread, apathy or frustration than when we hear, “It is time for your new business forecast for next year.” Contract negotiations, board meetings, airplane travel after 9/11, Covid-induced supply-chain issues, dealing with your cable company and dental appointments; none of these compares to the angst sales leaders experience when forecasting new business from new clients they hope to win and have no current business relationship with.

Is there a less exact science to any required report or activity for salespeople than forecasting clients with whom you have no historical relationship and are competing against other EMS companies to win? Let’s examine some of the truths behind this requirement.

When we consider some of the variables that can affect an accurate, next-year new business forecast, it seems staggering:

The designer’s (large) role to keep projects on track.

The restaurant industry has a saying, “Time to lean is time to clean.” The gist is that there is never a dull moment while the clock is ticking. Bearing in mind the importance of time, the PCB designer is often faced with the prospect of starting a layout before all the necessary data are on the table. A preliminary schematic and a rough outline are a step in the right direction but by no means the whole story.

That beginning may have been delayed while the schematic capture gets to a state where you have enough information to actually start the physical design segment. In the meantime, it’s always good to inquire about any new connectors or other components to get a jump on obtaining or creating the footprint for the library. These kinds of things are often left to the designer. Going to see the cognizant engineer – or at least chatting them up – will let them know you’re on the job and trying to push forward.

Electrical and mechanical engineers have a lot on their plate and can be spread thin. They can seem to have a high tolerance for risk when it comes to the schedule. That is, anything and everything can change at any time. The one exception is the tape-out date. This is the significant difference between a “waterfall schedule” and concurrent design.