What history can tell us about our position in high-tech.

New Chinese restrictions on the technology, including processors, permitted in equipment procured by government agencies are the latest move in the global battle for influence in the semiconductor industry; itself a part of a larger struggle for economic power.

US-based companies have more than 46% share of the $574 billion global semiconductor market (in 2022, according to a report by Citigroup), although China is the largest end-market, representing some 31% of sales. Semiconductor exports earn more for the US economy than any other products except oil, gas and aircraft. So of course, it's important.

We have all become heavily reliant on advanced semiconductors in every aspect of life and work, driving the machines we use to get things done: the IoT applications managing our homes, businesses and infrastructures; the AI powering interactions from photography and customer service to medical decision-making; even our mobility, which is increasingly electrified, automated and connected.

5G has great potential, but brings power challenges at the infrastructure and board levels.

5G network capacity is predicted to increase as much as 1000-fold by 2030. That's a stunning increase that can be attributed to effects such as our digital lifestyles and digital business transformation. Clearly, our dependence on online services that are available anytime, anywhere and at full speed shows no sign of abating. The effect on global energy demand could be even more stunning. The information & communications technology (ICT) industry currently consumes about 4% of the world's electricity, and this could increase to an amazing 20% with the growth of 5G networks. In absolute terms, that's equivalent to 150 quadrillion BTU per year.

Of course, 5G is huge, in scope as well as deployment. It covers low frequency bands, up to about 1GHz, although the main benefits of 5G are its ability to carry richer services that by their nature require faster data rates. These will push the limits of Frequency Range 1 (FR1) as defined by 5G standards, up to 6GHz in the FR1 range, and even higher in FR2 that extends into the millimeter-wave bands at 60-70GHz and even beyond. While services in the FR1 bands can support data rates of about 1-2Gbit/s, the higher bands are needed to support multi-gigabit data rates and latency of less than a few milliseconds.

Connecting the world will require a better energy solution.

The early stages of the IoT "hype curve" saw some wild predictions for the number of devices that would be deployed. They're not looking so wild now, with 15 billion devices in 2020 and 29 billion expected by 2030. About 60% of these will be consumer devices, the remainder industrial, or IIoT, devices including smart meters and sensors for monitoring automation equipment, transportation infrastructures, and buildings like offices and factories.

Knowing that IPv6's 128-bit address space would permit more than 100 IP addresses for each atom on the surface of the earth, we can see that the IoT could theoretically grow well beyond even the most ambitious predictions.

While we can solve many problems by adding more of these devices, we are creating another at the same time. Each one needs a source of energy to operate and the fact that many of them will be deployed in mobile or remote locations means a battery is the most obvious power source. Already, the US alone throws away about 3 billion batteries every year and our IoT habit could add many extra tons of hazardous waste. But there are some exciting alternatives.

Durability in the heavens can lead to sustainability on Earth.

We are increasingly reliant on satellite-borne services, as evidenced by the huge increase in launches in the past few years. The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) has recorded over 5,500 launches between 2020 and 2022 in its Register of Objects Launched into Outer Space. This contrasts with typically 100 to 200 per year from the early 1960s until 2016.

The vast majority of satellites in operation today support communication applications such as Internet services. Of the 6,718 operational satellites at the start of 2023, 4,823 are communication satellites. While their number has increased more than 50% since 2022, there are also over 1,200 Earth observation satellites, up by more than 13%. Others are used for technical development, navigation and positioning, and space observation.

We need the services these space vehicles provide. The Starlink constellation, delivering high-speed Internet services, operates in a low earth orbit at an altitude of about 550km. It can boast much lower latency than typical Internet satellites in higher, geostationary orbits needed to support streaming services and video calls. This enables high-quality services to reach areas where installing ground-based Internet infrastructure is not cost-effective or practicable.