SANTA CLARA, CA – For the second year in a row, worldwide TV shipments are expected to remain flat, says NPD DisplaySearch. 2012 shipments to developed markets, especially Western Europe and Japan, are expected to be down 11% year-over-year, which would offset the forecasted 8% year-over-year growth in emerging markets, the firm says. Even so, growth is projected to continue for the LCD TV market, as it captures market share from declining CRT and plasma technologies.

LCD TVs are expected to account for more than 88.5% of total TV shipments worldwide in 2012, up from 82.5% in 2011, and rising to more than 90% by next year.

By contrast, plasma TV will account for just 5.3% of shipment volume in 2012, after peaking at about 7.4% in 2010, says NPD.

LCD TV shipments will grow 7% to 220 million in 2012, and rise to 241 million in 2013. Plasma TV shipments will fall 24% in 2012 to 13.1 million, dropping to fewer than 3 million by 2015. The newest flat panel TV technology, OLED, will debut in large sizes in 2012, but volume will be very small, just 50,000 units or fewer, the research firm says.

Larger sizes continue to increase their share, lifting the average size of TVs shipped to almost 35" in 2012 from less than 30" just four years ago. The growing number of larger factories used to produce LCD TV panels has helped the average area price to fall rapidly.

The share of LED backlit LCD TVs is expected to increase to 70.1% in 2012, compared to just 45.3% in 2011. The primary reason for the higher outlook is the introduction of low-cost direct-LED backlit models, which have smaller premiums over CCFL backlit models. The new direct-lit LED models are bulkier than edge-lit models, but the lower premium will attract the most price-sensitive consumers. Even so, five times as many edge-lit LED backlit LCD TVs will be shipped than direct-lit models, and the premiums for edge-lit LED LCD TVs are expected to start falling faster later in the year, the firm says.

Despite a soft start in North America, 3D is proving a popular feature in other regions, helping to drive shipments of more than 24 million units in 2011 and an anticipated 90% increase in 2012 to 46 million units. Shipment penetration is expected to exceed 25% in both Western Europe and China and 20% in Eastern Europe. While North America is still expected to lag with 19% penetration in 2012, it should be the leading 3D shipment region by 2014, when most large screen sizes will include 3D capability as a standard feature, and North America will be the top region for 40"+ TV shipments.

China became the largest overall TV market in 2009 and the largest LCD TV market in 2011, says NPD. However, with household flat panel TV penetration reaching high levels in urban areas, growth is expected to slow until rural cities start seeing increased adoption. LCD TV shipments are forecast to grow 11% year-over-year in China during 2012, down from 17% year-over-year growth in 2011.