In a research report released today, Deutsche Bank said, "We have become more optimistic about Sanmina`s longer-term strategy, but believe the company must clear several near- and long-term hurdles before it warrants a premium valuation to its peers. Most importantly, we believe Sanmina`s short-term margin targets will prove aggressive."
Sanmina-SCI has set a goal of 10% revenue growth for fiscal 2005, a target DB calls "achievable." The investment bank "continues to question" Sanmina-SCI's margin forecasts, however, saying "management`s forecasts for its components business are particularly aggressive."
Sanmina-SCI cut its revenue estimates from original design manufacturing (ODM) services to $150 million to $200 million next year. Last year, the company forecast ODM sales would be $500 million by 2005.
The trade group is basing its findings on a recent RoHS/lead-free summit at which scores of company's traded insights on the European Union's Restriction on Use of Certain Hazardous Substances and Waste from Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) directives.
The meetings were held October 18-20 and drew close to 190 people.
One primary concern: how companies will be able to prove compliance -- to regulatory bodies and to their customers. The directives are not explicit on this point, and the EU's Technical Adaptation Committee, responsible for providing guidance on RoHS implementation, has not yet made recommendations, NEMI said in a press statement.
Among the attendees' recommendations:
- Executive support is required for a successful company program.
- Each firm should appoint a project manager and develop an implementation plan that includes in-house efforts as well as supply base.
- Many major OEMs plan to convert to Pb-free solder and components during the first three quarters of 2005 for their consumer products (some are targeting the end of this year.)
- Much of the supply chain is prepared to support this conversion schedule.
- Many producers of high-end exempt products will convert to Pb-free components at the same time, and then convert to Pb-free solder at a later date.
- All major OEMs are requiring new part numbers for Pb-free components (in order to clearly differentiate "leaded" parts from Pb-free).
Breakout groups then explored potential areas of industry collaboration. Among the ideas:
- A 10-step "best practices" program that would help companies demonstrate due diligence to remove RoHS-banned substances from products.
- An industry-wide depository of component material data.
- Coordination between parallel efforts, and education on approaches/best practices.
- Processing and reliability of Pb-free and mixed-metal technology for high-end electronics (which are exempt from some of the directives' requirements).
Presentations from the summit and reports from the breakout groups are available at www.nemi.org/newsroom/Presentations/RoHS_summit.html.
Minneapolis, MN - The SMTA's Pan Pacific Microelectronics Symposium & Exhibit (smta.org/pan_pac/) will take place Jan. 25-27, 2005, at the Sheraton Kauai Resort in Kauai, HI. Kei Biu, of SMT Corp, will give the keynote presentation on Green Electronics in China.
The technical program will consist of sessions on 3-D Chip Stacking, System in Package (SiP), RF & Sensor Technologies, High Performance Packaging and Assembly Management Strategies.
Additional sessions will cover Pb-Free Reliability, Solder and Rework Processes, Pb-free Microstructures and Performance, Pb-free Implementation, Package Solder Joint Reliability and Electronic Adhesives, Chip Attach and Materials Technologies, Cleaning and Surface Treatments, Packaging and Assembly Trends, and Inspection and Test.
The event averages more than 100 participants annually from 15 different countries throughout Europe, the Americas and the Pacific Basin.
For more information, contact JoAnn Stromberg: 952-920-7682; joann@smta.org.
Endicott, NY -- Endicott Interconnect Technology was recently issued a patent to improve package reliability, its second since the company's formation in 2002.
In late October, EI received their first U.S. Patent (6,809,269) "Circuitized Substrate Assembly and Method of Making Same" - a multilayer printed circuit that uses conductive paste to form electrical connections between layers of the structure.
This was followed by the U.S. patent issued this week (6,815,837), "Electronic Package with Strengthened Conductive Pad" - an approach to strengthening the design of printed circuits to improve their reliability when assembled with components.
Endicott engineers have filed over 38 U.S. patent applications to date.
Las Vegas, Nov. 12 -- The mood was cautious among the 40 companies that presented at Deutsche Bank's annual semiconductor conference in Las Vegas over the past two days.
Among a generally subdued mood, most companies view the current soft patch as only a mid-cycle correction resulting from an inventory hiccup. Positive anecdotes came from Xilinx, suggesting that its business in China has improved over the past month, and Micrel, whose POS from distribution in October was flat to up month-on-month. On the other hand, National Semiconductor and Atmel were cautious (Atmel has not seen a pickup in Q4 orders).
Avnet senior VP and CFO Ray Sadowski fielded several questions after his presentation, mostly on inventory. After seeing inventory increase 12% over the past two quarters (while sales fell 1%), the company plans to reduce inventory over the next several months. Sadowski seemed confident that fundamentals would improve by the March or June quarter.
According to DB, distribution industry fundamentals will likely deteriorate in the near-term. Slowing end-market demand, deteriorating commodity prices and more aggressive pricing among distributors will make it difficult for companies to demonstrate even modest margin expansion over the next six to 12 months.
San Jose, CA -- Electronics manufacturing in China experienced another year of record growth in 2003, exceeding even optimistic expectations, according to a new report from Electronic Trend Publications. While part of the growth is attributable to a bandwagon effort to keep pace with worldwide competitors who manufacture in China or have CM/ODM partners there, the major trend is for companies to lower product cost by leveraging the outsourcing model and gaining access to the enormous, undeveloped local Chinese market.
ETP estimates the cost of goods sold for electronics products manufactured in China was $122 billion in 2002. The market is predicted to grow at a CAGR of 15.4%, reaching $270 billion by 2008. Some of the fastest growing companies over this period should include TCL, Aucma, AsusTek, Jinling, Quanta, Gree and UTStarcom, all of which saw their revenues double from the previous year.
Computing and communications IT equipment will continue to grow, accounting for nearly 68% of China's total electronics production by 2008. However, the market in all industries is expanding for both domestic consumption and export.
The unanswered question is: How long can this growth be sustained without a downturn? ETP suggests that Asian companies tend to compete themselves into an unhealthy market environment from a supply and profit point of view. Yet, as long as fundamental worldwide demand for products remains strong, China is expected to expand its market share of the worldwide assembly market.
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