SAN FRANCISCO -- Global IT spending will be flat in 2009 on diminished demand for hardware, a top analyst said today.

IT hardware revenues are forecast to drop 8% year-over-year, Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore wrote in a research note.

Software sales will rise 5% year-over-year and services will grow 4%, he wrote. Overall IT spending rose 6% last year.

According to DB, PC revenues (including server sales) will drop 10%, while units will slip 5% from 2008. Printers will drop 11%, he said, and servers are estimated to fall 5%.

Most spending will come in the second half of the year, Whitmore said. "We expect enterprises to underspend their budgets in the first half as limited economic visibility instills a high degree of fiscal conservatism in the near term. Our analysis shows that IT spending is 95% correlated with GDP and jobs growth, making the timing of recovery a macro call."

DB forecasts a moderate recovery beginning in 2010.

IBM is expected to remain the best-positioned player, with Sun, Xerox, Kodak and others in inferior positions.

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