LA QUINTA, CA – The US recession ended in the summer of 2009. You hadn’t noticed? That’s because recovery has been “mediocre, muted,” according to Shawn DuBravac, chief economist and director of research for the Consumer Electronics Association.

DuBravac led off the IPC Electronics Industry Executive Summit this week, and although the recession is over, he says the recovery has been slower than past recoveries, especially with regard to wages. Not much growth this year has been from personal income, he said, which is merely “inching up.”

Yet with the holiday season still ahead, there’s reason to be hopeful, especially for companies with new products in the pipeline.

The financial story is twofold. While companies are heavy on cash, they are hoarding their wealth. Meanwhile, individuals are strapped for cash, and most of their wages go toward living expenses and debt reduction.

Some 60% of technology companies’ revenue is earned overseas, Dubravac says, and while firms are “cash rich,” they aren’t spending. For their part, “employees are capturing less corporate compensation than ever” – or what DuBravac calls “corporate GDP.” Companies are doing well, but it’s “not trickling down to employees.”

Where recent income growth has been seen is in the area of government transfers such as unemployment and social security, he notes, representing 18% to 19% of total income – higher than any time in the past 30 years. The job market offers only a small glimmer of hope; it will continue to recover slowly, he says. Interestingly, technology is continuing to garner a greater share of the consumer spend.

The first quarter of 2010 looked strong, DuBravac recounted, with US technology growth in both units and revenue. “Then it dissolved,” he said, with a “mediocre summit” followed by negative growth, with a new recovery just starting. For the year, DuBravac expects unit growth to be a few percentage points.

Year to date, video game hardware is down about 1% compared to 2009, and will be about the same for the full year. However, in the fourth quarter, the CEA expects a “launch of new accessories [that] will extend the life of consoles by a year or two.”

Typically, video game hardware has a five-year cycle, but the current trend is closer to six to six-and-a-half years. “The need for greater graphics drives a cycle,” DuBravac asserts. At the moment, that drive isn’t extremely high because, for example, the PS3 can now accommodate 3D, and the Xbox360 can handle the horsepower needed for its new Kinect accessories.

DuBravac says, however, that video game consoles will set a high of 35 million units this year.

With digital cameras, “revenue growth is exceeding unit growth, which is unusual.”

Unit growth for TVs has been mediocre in 2010, and inventory high. In January this year, LCD TV shipments were “horrible.” Then LCDs experienced a “strong reset” in March. Price declines have moderated for TVs. In January 2009, overall declines were 20% to 30%. By July 2010, overall declines were between 5% and 10%. “Units have to give or prices have to give.” Eighty thousand LCD TVs over 40" are shipped each month, he notes.

MP3 players are down 11% year-to-date compared to 2009. For 2010, they will be down about 8% year-over-year.

Seven million tablets will be sold in 2010, he continues, and “that number might be a little low.” Tablet sales are set to double in 2011.

With the holiday season upon us soon, DuBravac shared his “50% rule:  Half of the annual volume of new technology is in the fourth quarter.” Of total technology, new and old, 22% of annual volume is in the first quarter, and 27% is in the fourth quarter.

“3D TVs and tablets will easily see half their volume in the fourth quarter” this year, and “tablets will become the first and second quarter 2011 story,” he says. New gaming accessories also will do well in the December quarter.

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