LA QUINTA, CA – Electronics equipment growth will outpace worldwide GDP by a factor of more than two-to-one over the next five years, while PWB growth will be even higher, according to a leading industry analyst.

Real gross domestic product compound annual average growth from 2009 to 2014 will be 3.5% worldwide, 6.3% for emerging economies. Meanwhile, electronics equipment will experience a CAGR of 7.8%, and PWBs will have come in at 9.1%, says Henderson Ventures (hendersonventures.com). However, much of the PWB growth is already behind us: from 2010 to 2014, the PWB CAGR will be 6.9%, Henderson says.

North American PWB production this year will grow 11.6% year-over-year, then rise 2.4% and 5.2% in 2011 and 2012, respectively, says Ed Henderson, principal analyst. In Asia, PWB production will be up 19.1% this year compared to 2009. In 2011, it will grow 6.1%, and in 2012 PWB production will rise 9.7%.

World PWB production in 2009 was $44.2 billion. Between 2009 and 2014, the CAGR for PWB production will be 9.1%, but only 6.9% for the world’s major industrial nations. “Developing countries will be the ultimate drivers of the economy,” Henderson asserted.

Speaking at last week’s IPC Electronics Industry Executive Summit, Henderson said global gross domestic product will rise 3.7% in 2010, then 3.3% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2012. The rates are weak compared to historical norms of 4% or more, Henderson said. World GDP next year for developed nations will be up 1.9%, while emerging economies will see a rise of 6.1%.

Global equipment production in 2010 will be nearly $1.9 trillion, up from $1.62 trillion last year. Equipment growth will be 22.6% this year; 8.7% in 2011 and 7.5% in 2012.

Right now, the US economic environment is such that “interest rates will remain low; banks still have relatively tight policies; fiscal stimulus programs are winding down; the US dollar is headed for devaluation, and there will be spending cuts and tax increases eventually,” Henderson predicts
In 2010 the US GDP will be $13.22 trillion, up 2.6% year-over-year. In 2011 it will be $13.5 trillion, up 2.1%. Total US GDP in 2009 was $12.88 trillion, down 2.6% compared to 2008.

By comparison, the EU’s outlook looks bleaker. After dropping 4.2% last year, EU GDP in 2010 will be up 1.6%; in 2011, it will be up 1.5%, and in 2012 it will rise 1.8%. The “sovereign debt crisis is still not solved, and there is a large EU asset pool to support debtors. Bank stability is still questioned; fiscal policy tightened; interest rates will remain low, and German exports are powering recovery.”

Japan’s GDP this year will rise 2.7%, following a 2009 drop of 5.2%. Japan is “overly dependent on exports, and its population is declining,” according to Henderson.

Notably, China’s GDP will rise 10.2% this year compared to last year; in 2009 it went up 9.1%. Next year, the nation’s GDP will see a rise of 8.6%. Still, the numbers belie some difficult underpinnings. “Wage rates are rising; there are more strikes, and there is an increasing pressure to revalue the yuan.” There is also a real estate bubble, he adds.

“India is now the one to watch,” Henderson said.

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