FRAMINGHAM, MA -- International Data Corp. today lowered this year's forecast for worldwide PC unit shipment growth to 4.2%, citing the overall economic outlook and market saturation.

The research firm previously forecast growth of 7.1% for 2011.

“A combination of declining first quarter shipments, an increasingly conservative economic outlook, relative saturation among developed market consumers, and competing products will lead to slow growth in 2011 before a rebound in 2012,” IDC said.

Consumer growth trends, coupled with modest growth in the commercial sector, a cautious outlook from PC makers, disruptions including the Japan earthquake and nuclear disaster, the Arab Spring, and reduced economic projections (including government stimulus) will keep overall growth in single digits the rest of 2011, IDC said.

The firm noted consumer PC purchases, which, fueled by netbook demand, easily outpaced commercial growth even during the 2009 recession, has "given way to a number of factors, including relative saturation following this boom cycle, recognition of their limitations, and better competition from both mainstream notebooks and media tablets." Shipments of the latter two segments increased 31 million and 17.9 million units in 2010 respectively vs. just 1.3 million for mini notebooks, IDC noted.

"Consumers are recognizing the value of owning and using multiple intelligent devices and because they already own PCs, they're now adding smart phones, media tablets, and eReaders to their device collections," said Bob O'Donnell, vice president, Clients and Displays."And this has shifted the technology share of wallet onto other connected devices."

The firm also noted new enhancements, including more touch screens, due in 2012 are providing additional incentive for consumers to delay PC purchases.

Nevertheless, IDC expects significant growth in both consumer and commercial markets to continue beyond 2011. For 2012 through 2015, IDC forecasts growth of 10 to 11%.

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