The monthly order index compiled by the Electronic Components, Assemblies & Materials Association (ECA, Arlington, VA) took its annual December dip, but the outlook remains positive for 2004.

"Based on previous years, we expected a December dip," said Bob Willis, ECA president. "The good news is that the December dollar value is up by more than 20% over 2002, and the 12-month moving average ended on an upward note. Our members believe that 2004 might be the first year of sustained growth since 2000."

Electronic components are the building blocks of most consumer goods and technology hardware, so the industry normally reflects the movement of the economy as a whole. This year, the outlook is good. Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for Global Insight, predicts that economic growth in 2004 will be the strongest since the bursting of the high-tech bubble in 2000, with the U.S. and Asian countries outside of Japan enjoying the fastest growth.

Behravesh said, "The beleaguered manufacturing sector will finally enjoy a year of strong, uninterrupted growth - barring any unforeseen shocks."

According to Willis, the ECA has scheduled a full slate of events and marketing opportunities that will help its members make the best of the industry's rebound.

"There is a lot of justifiable optimism, but companies need the resources to manage the intricacies of demand, raw materials, supply flow, distribution, inventory and other interrelated issues," said Willis. "We had prosperity a few years ago, but it went bust. We want our members to have access to the information and opportunities that will allow them to take advantage of the good and mitigate the bad."

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