ALAMEDA, CA -- EMS providers will post an average compound annual growth rate of 11.9% over the next five years, reaching $429 billion by 2010, Technology Forecasters forecast today.
ODMs will grow 11.4%, with computer, communications, and medical posting the strongest growth rates, the research firm said.

In spite of continuing challenges caused by the housing/credit crunch, high tech will offer a safe haven for investors and corporate spending and global demand will support healthy growth in electronics, Tech Forecasters economist and senior consultant Matt Chanoff told a group of EMS providers. 

"While the soft housing market and credit crunch in the U.S. poses risks to the global economy, our verdict is that it will deal but a glancing blow to electronics, and world output will remain strong," Chanoff said. "That translates to good news for electronics outsourcing, although pressure on average selling prices will continue to challenge profitability for manufacturers." 

Companies attempting to improve on the industry's historically slim margins have pursued several different strategies with mixed results, according to the report:

• Emulating Foxconn in building a more vertically integrated model in order to generate higher margins from component or assembly sales.
• Aggressively addressing segments with higher average margins, notably medical and automotive electronics, often through alliances rather than directly building capacity.
• Attempting to capture higher margin services in the product life cycle, such as prototyping and after-sales support.
• Focusing on higher margin niches within commodity segments, such as servers instead of notebooks.

The most important EMS driver continues to be growth in the computer systems market. Over the past year, strong unit sales in computers have combined with a customer shift toward notebook purchases that has had the effect of raising average computer selling prices. 

One increasingly bright spot for outsourcing is in medical electronics, which TFI forecasts at an 8.5% CAGR through 2011. Medical device outsourcing continues to gain traction as EMS companies rise to the challenges of long product development cycles coupled with strict quality standards and complex documentation requirements required by regulation. Chanoff noted another bright spot in the increasing electronics content of the automotive sector.

Other findings:

• ODMs that moved into own-brand manufacturing are finding ODM business customers suspicious of this model. ODMs have responded by separating the two businesses.

• ODM attempts to diversify product offerings have met with mixed success. Over the forecast period, spinoffs of own-brand operations, relative maturity in systems markets, mixed success in entering new product markets, and competition with Hon Hai will together retard revenue growth in this sector, TFI predicts .

• Despite Flextronics ' acquisition of Solectron, TFI does not anticipate an acceleration of merger and acquisition activity in the EMS segment because there is a lack of buyers; furthermore, current volatility and de-leveraging in capital markets makes it less likely that a financial buyer such as private equity will step in.

The report projects total outsourcing to grow from just over $247 billion in 2006 to nearly $429 billion by 2010. For revenue in the EMS sector  this translates into 11.9% compound annual growth rate through 2011, driven by the dramatic growth of Hon Hai, (CAGR would be 6-7% without Hon Hai) and 10-11% CAGR for ODM companies over the same period.

As for the regional distribution of outsourced manufacturing in 2006, TFI determined EMS production as follows: 55% in Asia, 25% in the Americas, and 20% in Europe. By 2011, this distribution will shift to approximately 69% in Asia, 17% in the Americas, and 14% in Europe. In 2006, ODM production was more concentrated in Asia, with 96% in Asia, 2% in the Americas, and 2% in Europe. TFI projects that by 2011 ODM production will become somewhat more regionally distributed, with 90% in Asia, 5% in the Americas, and 5% in Europe.

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