FRAMINGHAM, MA – Fourth quarter shipments of traditional PCs (desktops, notebooks, and workstations) totaled more than 68.1 million units, down 3.7% year-over-year, according to the International Data Corp. (IDC).

The results slightly outperformed the forecast, which called for a decline of 4.7%, but also produced the largest year-over-year decline since the third quarter of 2016 and capped the full year at a nearly flat rate (down 0.4%).

Heading into the quarter, there was industry-wide concern over processor shortages and rising economic tensions between the US and China, says IDC. Aggressive stocking of inventory during the third quarter in anticipation of the shortage led to some sell-through challenges, driving a reduction of fourth quarter shipments in some regions. The confluence of events in 2018 led to the lowest sequential growth for a holiday quarter since the fourth quarter of 2012, says the firm.

Nonetheless, the market performed better than expected, with corporate PC refresh – driven by the looming Windows 7 end of life in January 2020 – helping to offset consumer market challenges. Japan had an especially strong quarter driven by commercial refresh, which lifted virtually all aspects of the market, according to IDC. All regions except the US exceeded the forecast, although Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) faced challenges from a difficult Chinese commercial environment.

"The ongoing economic tensions between China and the United States continue to create a lot of uncertainty in the business environment in China,” said Maciek Gornicki, research manager at IDC’s Asia/Pacific Client Devices Group. “As demand for Chinese products in the US drops, this particularly impacts businesses of all sizes from the manufacturing sector in China, which, in turn, translates to a drop in IT purchases by these companies. As a result, the PC market in China is expected to suffer bigger declines throughout the year. And if the trade war escalates further, we should expect spillover of the impact to other countries, particularly due to the expected fluctuations of the exchange rates impacting businesses across the region."

"As the US PC market, especially the lower-end, continued to suffer from the ongoing shortfall of Intel CPUs, overall PC sales took a hit during the fourth quarter of 2018," said Neha Mahajan, senior research analyst with IDC’s Devices and Displays Group. "While the processor supply challenges are expected to continue into the first two quarters of 2019, PC makers are likely to see the situation improve before the back-to-school season begins during the latter half of the year."

The traditional PC market in the US saw a modest uptick in volume from the year prior, says IDC. Total shipments for the quarter reached 16.7 million units, which was slightly below forecast. Commercial shipments remained fairly robust during the quarter, thanks to the ongoing Windows 10 refresh cycle. While market leader HP saw its year-over-year volumes modestly decline (despite a sequential improvement), the other top five vendors mostly saw volumes improve.

In the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region, the traditional PC market was negative for the first time in six quarters, with both desktop and notebooks reporting a moderate decline. This weakening of the market stemmed from the ongoing component shortages and was further impacted by a level of disruption and uncertainty arising from challenging geopolitical and economic scenarios within major economies in the region.

The traditional PC market in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) posted a single-digit decline in the fourth quarter, which was relatively close to IDC's forecast. Overstock in the channels, coupled with Intel CPU shortages, impacted sell-in across the region. In India, a significant drop in consumer demand, together with high inventory remaining in the channels, led to a stronger than expected decline in the consumer and SMB segments, while Intel supply shortages led to a drop in sales to the enterprise customers. In China, the commercial PC market came in below expectations, impacted by Intel CPU shortages and slowness in spending from the public sector, while US-China trade issues had a negative effect on demand from the private sector.

In Japan, corporate Windows 10 refresh entered its final phase and helped beat expectations for the quarter, with growth among virtually all OEMs, although multinational OEMs reaped most of the benefits.

Lenovo maintained its status as the top OEM in the traditional PC space, and one of only two top five companies to post growth in the quarter compared to a year ago. Its US operation continued to recover from a year ago. In APeJ, Lenovo felt increased pressure from HP and Dell, and posted the largest decline within the region among the three vendors.

HP declined 3.2% worldwide, mostly due to a challenging quarter in the Americas. The company fell below market growth in the US, where unfavorable comparisons arose due to strong results in the same quarter of 2017. At the same time, the company weathered the APeJ market slide better than many of its rivals and tied with Lenovo in global market share for 2018.

Dell had the strongest year-over-year growth among the top OEMs at 1.6% for the quarter and ended 2018 growing 5.6% over 2017, also the strongest among the top OEMs.

Apple remained in the fourth position, with market share of 7.2% and year-over-year declines of 3.8% in both desktop and notebook shipments.

Acer took fifth place, with market share of 6.7% and a year-over-year decline of 8.5%. Acer continues to compete in the gaming space, which remains a big focus for the company in 2019, but challenges within the component constraints likely affected its overall consumer business in the fourth quarter, says IDC.

• Prev
• Next