2026 Smartphone Shipments Cut as Memory Shortages Drive Costs Higher
SEOUL, BEIJING, TAIPEI, LONDON, NEW DELHI – Global smartphone shipments are now expected to decline 2.1% in 2026 as surging memory prices push bill-of-materials costs sharply higher, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest forecast.
The firm revised its 2026 shipment outlook down by 2.6%, with Chinese OEMs facing the steepest reductions as rising DRAM prices squeeze margins and dampen demand. Low-end smartphones are bearing the brunt of the impact, though cost pressures are now extending across all price tiers.
Counterpoint estimates that DRAM price increases have already lifted smartphone BoM costs by roughly 25% for low-end devices, 15% for mid-range models, and 10% for high-end phones. Additional cost inflation of 10% to 15% is expected through Q2 2026 as memory prices continue to climb.
As manufacturers pass through higher costs and rebalance portfolios, average selling prices are forecast to rise 6.9% year over year, nearly double earlier expectations. OEMs with scale, vertical integration and strong premium portfolios are expected to be better positioned, while others may reduce low-end SKUs or downgrade component specifications to protect profitability.
