TAIPEI, TAIWAN – TrendForce has revised its 2026 global notebook shipment forecast downward, now expecting a 5.4% year-over-year decline to roughly 173 million units, as rising memory prices and cautious consumer spending pressure margins and limit pricing flexibility.

The firm warned that if memory price increases persist into Q2 2026 and brands are unable to pass on higher costs, the market could face a deeper contraction of up to 10.1% for the full year. Entry-level and consumer notebook demand is expected to be most vulnerable under this scenario.

Notebook brands with strong supply-chain relationships, higher exposure to commercial and mid-to-high-end products, and mature pricing strategies are better positioned to weather the downturn. Apple and Lenovo were highlighted as comparatively resilient due to scale advantages, stable procurement volumes, and supply-chain leverage.

TrendForce also expects higher memory costs to weigh on upstream components. Total notebook panel shipments are projected to fall 7.9% year over year in 2026, with LCD panels facing sharper declines. While OLED notebook panels should continue growing as adoption expands, shipment growth is likely to slow as higher system prices temper demand.

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