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Results from last month’s study on registration using closed-loop control.

Ed.: Last month’s column reviewed a design of experiments (DoE) of print registration control. This month we discuss the results.

Evaluation tests. Figures 6 and 7 show results from the evaluation tests. Results from the rear to front direction are shown with two different correction factors. The graph shows that for 50% correction factor, it takes four boards to reach the target registration. On the other hand, for 25% correction factor, it takes about eight boards to reach the target registration. Predictably, smaller correction factor holds the offset value at a much tighter range. Based on these results, a 50% correction factor was considered adequate and was used for the remainder of the tests.

Fig 6a

 Fig 6b

 Fig 7a

Fig 7b

Baseline test. Figures 8 and 9 show results from the baseline test for F2R stroke direction only. R2F stroke direction showed similar behavior. As is clear from the plots, both X and Y offset fluctuate around a fixed spot that which is not zero. Additional analysis comparing the baseline results to the long-run result will be presented later.

Fig 8

Fig 9

Long-run test. Results from this study are presented in Figures 10 to 13. From these results, the closed loop control algorithm is capable of reaching the target value rather quickly. Additionally, it is observed that the average registration value can be maintained close to the target for the entire duration of the test.

Fig 10

Fig 11

Fig 12

Fig 13

Print performance comparison between with/without closed loop control gives a measure of process improvements produced by the closed-loop control system. Comparison of the process capability index, Cpk, for X and Y offset measurements for the cellphone board is shown in Figure 13. The increase in the Cpk for both X and Y offset with control is due to the centering and tightening of the print process. Additional statistical analysis confirms the improvement of print performance by employing the closed-loop process control. This analysis is presented in Figure 14. Figure 15 shows the individual moving chart for Y offset with both with/without the control. It is clear from this analysis that both mean and control limit improve for process with the closed-loop control.

Fig 14

Fig 15

Closed-loop controls have been implemented at many stages along printed circuit board manufacturing lines, including within reflow ovens and component placement.

Miniaturization will drive closed loop-process controls for printing slowly but surely into assembly lines. Closed-loop controllers, when implemented correctly, have advantages of keeping complex processes within control limits, even when small external perturbations affect the product line. In addition, closed-loop control minimizes operator intervention and has self-tuning properties.

Limited controlled experiments in a laboratory environment show an improvement in the print process capability with the closed-loop control in place. The full extent of the benefit can only be accessed by employing such a system in a true high-volume production environment.  CA

Acknowledgment
The authors would like to express their sincerest gratitude to Paul Haugen from CyberOptics for continued support in operating the SPI system and insight into inspection system in general. Without his support, this project wouldn’t have been successful.  

References
1. Rita Mohanty, “In the Loop,” Circuits Assembly, March 2009.

Rita Mohanty, Ph.D., is director advanced development at Speedline Technologies (speedlinetech.com); rmohanty@speedlinetech.com.


New measurement technology enables high degrees of verification and confidence.

Since the dawn of SMT, the solder paste printing process has been considered the primary source of assembly defects. The process itself is an enigmatic combination of art and science, and is not easy to control. As surface mount technology evolved, a variety of solder paste inspection tools progressed, often employing the latest advancements in optics, lasers and machine vision systems. But when miniaturization efforts produced 0.5 mm area array devices, the incumbent inspection technologies all fell short, either on accuracy or cycle time, or both. The ability to read 0.010˝ deposits well enough to be trusted and quickly enough to meet production requirements became the Holy Grail in automated paste inspection. That’s when phase shift interferometry, a light and vision-based technology, was introduced as an inspection method, and changed the way we look at solder paste.

How does it work? Simple physics. Imagine sun shining through window blinds. The sunbeams form a pattern of stripes, alternating light and dark. These stripes appear straight on planar surfaces such as floors or tables, but seem to jog back and forth as they cross over furnishings that alter the surfaces’ flat topographies. The amount of perceived zigging and zagging depends on the height of the object and the relative angles of the observation and source light. By taking several measurements at known intervals, the height of the surfaces can be calculated mathematically.

The alternating light and dark stripes are known as a Moiré pattern (Figure 1), and the method of measuring them at known intervals is called phase shift interferometry (Figure 2). The Koh Young solder paste inspection system utilizes a patented, sophisticated application of phase shift interferometry to measure solder paste deposits. It essentially divides each paste deposit into tiny segments as small as 10 µm, and measures each segment’s location and height (Figure 3). It then calculates the individual segments’ volumes, and constructs a 3-D model of the entire solder paste deposit (Figure 4). The measured model’s volume, height and/or location are then compared to a theoretically perfect model. The modeling is unprecedentedly accurate, demonstrating a gage repeatability and reproducibility (GR&R) of less than 10%.

Fig 1

Fig 2

Fig 3

Fig 4

Vicor Corp., a manufacturer of power components, uses the Koh Young inspection equipment on its prototype and production lines. Sometimes referred to as “bricks” by assemblers, Vicor’s power management components are anything but brick-like on the inside. These packages contain some of the smallest and most complex SMT packages available: 0.5 mm area array devices, leadless packages like QFNs and SOT883s, and 0201 passives. The boards on which they are assembled are panelized in 10- to 20-up arrays, and a typical solder paste print consists of over 10,000 deposits, most of them smaller than 0.012˝.

Ten thousand paste deposits in the 0.012˝ range is not an impossible process, but it certainly is a challenging one. Ray Whittier, senior process engineer, is charged with keeping it in control. He uses the phase shift inspection technology extensively, both online and offline. Online process control includes screening prints for quality and optimizing throughput. Offline analysis includes stencil qualification and verification, paste qualification, and solder powder size selection.

The best place to begin employing the technology is in production. Implementation begins with programming a board, which takes about 10 min. The system’s computer creates a virtual “golden board” to which it compares actual print readings. It learns the theoretical stencil aperture sizes and locations from the stencil’s Gerber file; it learns the theoretical Z-height from user input, and it learns the reference plane by reading a bare board. The programmer can set a number of inspection parameters, including allowable deviations from the golden board’s stencil heights, stencil volumes, or aperture positions. Typical starting parameters are 50% minimum and 150% maximum of the stencil height and calculated aperture volume, and 50% center-to-center deviation from paste to pad.

To inspect print quality, the system scans the printed board and creates a second model in its computer. It takes less than 20 sec. for it to read over 10,000 paste deposits, construct the model, and compare the measured solder paste deposit volumes and locations to those on the golden board. If every deposit falls within the programmed specifications, the system passes the board on to the next operation. If one or more deposits do not meet the set criteria, however, the system fails the board and alerts an operator.

Whittier cautions that a failed print may not necessarily be a poor quality print. It may be an indication of variation among bare boards. “Critical features like circuit card dimensions, pad sizes and locations, and solder mask alignment each can vary substantially from lot to lot. A failed inspection may be the result of a bad print, or it may be an indication of a change in the bare boards. To distinguish between the two, operators run a bare board to reset the reference plane and scan the print again. If it passes, it is returned to production. If it fails, the print is scrapped. Many of the scan fails are the result of PWB tolerances, and are resolved by the bare board re-teach operation.”

How many actual print failures are captured? That depends on the complexity of the different products and the mix on the production line. Figure 5 shows the percentage of scrapped prints for top and bottom sides of the boards. The less complex bottom-side averages around a 1 to 2% failure rate, while the more challenging topside runs around 6 to 7% failures for the current product mix, with one monthly spike topping 12%. Had all these bad prints continued down the production line, they would likely have created expensive defects. Reworking BGA and QFN components is costly and risky for most assemblers, but for Vicor, rework is not an option. Failed assemblies are scrapped. With no chance for after-the-fact recovery, it is absolutely essential to catch defects at their point of origin.

How is overall process control instituted? The operating procedures are very specific regarding failures. If three true print failures occur sequentially, the process is paused and support is called out to the line to investigate the source of the failures. Interestingly, nowhere do the procedures call for visual confirmation of the machine-identified defect. Pass/fail decisions are based purely on the output of the machine. Whittier explains that “with a GR&R consistently in the 7 to 8% range, the machine is far more accurate than the human eye. It makes absolutely no sense to override a superior system with an inferior one.”

Boosting Yields and Cutting Costs
What is the end of line impact? For Vicor, overall yields climbed 3% upon implementation of the systems – a considerable and noteworthy boost. The bottom line also was improved by cost reductions and utilization improvements. When Vicor recently changed solder paste formulations, Whittier used the bridge detection feature to dial in the wipe frequency in production. He found he was able to double the wipe interval from every print to every other, halving his cost of wiper paper and the down time associated with changing it. He was also able to identify the pause time at which paste kneading is necessary to ensure good prints, eliminating unnecessary print rejects, kneading operations and board cleaning.

What is Whittier’s favorite feature of the phase shift interferometry equipment? “The combination of speed and accuracy. Every process engineer knows the tradeoffs between the two. In this machine, there are none.” His favorite unadvertised application? “Stencil verification. We now approve stencils for production faster and more accurately than ever before, as we can catch missing or improperly cut apertures in one reading” (Figure 6). His next future app? “DfM feedback to the design teams. There are no off-the-shelf DfM guidelines for the type of product we make. Using this inspection technology on our prototype lines alerts us to potential stencil printing issues while there is still time to design them out of the product.”

As for offline applications, Whittier was able to quickly characterize the transfer efficiencies of solder pastes under multiple print scenarios. The data he’s generated have allowed him to understand the impact of stencil suppliers and manufacturing processes on paste printing, resulting in simultaneous quality improvements and cost reductions. It’s provided him with a solid comparison of current and new solder paste formulations to upgrade his materials set and reduce variation in print quality. And it’s given him guidelines as to which feature sizes will require a switch to Type 4 solder paste so he can plan the timing of its introduction to meet Vicor’s product designs.

Imagine increasing an end-of-line yield by three percentage points. That alone is worth the price of admission, as it directly improves profitability. Cutting costs, improving throughput, qualifying suppliers, preparing for next-generation technology – they all improve profitability also, but less visibly. And, unfortunately, they’re still sometimes forgotten.   CA

Chrys Shea
is founder of Shea Engineering Services (sheaengineering.com); chrys@sheaengineering.com.


Legacy products are prone to fake parts. How to mitigate.


Ensuring component integrity is an increasing challenge for electronics manufacturing service providers focused on industrial products. Short consumer product lifecycles, the electronics industry’s conversion to lead-free components, and general weakness in the global market have increased the speed at which components are becoming obsolete. At the same time, industrial products often mature into legacy status due to the cost of redesign and qualification that drive very long life-spans.

In some cases, OEMs assume their best option is to avoid the cost of redesign and task their EMS providers to take reactive measures to source through independent brokers as components become unavailable. Ultimately, this can be false economy, because when a component goes obsolete, many hidden and unexpected costs creep in over time. These risks can include:

  • Inability to support market demand if components are not available.
  • Purchasing counterfeit parts through unknown independent distributors if component supplies are extremely limited.
  • Higher fallout from using legitimate parts with older date codes.
  • Higher fallout from parts that have been reworked and sold as new through the gray market.
  • Disappointed end-customers if parts pass in manufacturing test, but fail prematurely in the field.

Best Practices
What are the alternatives to reactive procurement practices in supporting legacy product? First, establish a plan and team with both the EMS provider and key manufacturers within the component supply chain to address obsolescence as early as possible. Second, since material costs will increase over time on a long lifecycle product, periodic redesigns should be budgeted and planned. Finally, since some purchasing of components through independent distributors is likely, it is important to establish relationships with the best suppliers – ones that will provide some level of guarantee that the source and integrity of the parts provided are reliable.

For example, one of our customers scheduled a revision spin of a complex industrial process control board. Before the redesign was finalized, we performed a lifecycle analysis of the components and identified nearly 20 parts at risk for obsolescence. The customer analyzed the alternate component suggestions and adopted about half. The remainder was left unchanged because substitutions would have required a complete re-layout of the printed circuit assembly. While this type of team effort and planning added some time and cost in the short run, the end-result is much more time and money saved over the life of the product.

The Real World
Even when lifecycle analysis is performed and regular redesigns are scheduled, legacy products can still experience unanticipated obsolescence. Component manufacturers give good advance notice prior to ceasing production on their components to companies with scheduled demand. However, with low-volume legacy products, components may be purchased as infrequently as every 12 to 18 months. In those cases, the first notice that the part is obsolete may be received only when the order is placed.

If known independent distributors don’t have a critical part, the next step becomes searching lesser-known independent distributors, and this requires a strong teaming focus. The customer may have suggestions on distributors they have used successfully, and the EMS provider is likely to have a network of companies that are potential suppliers. Regardless of how potential suppliers are identified, the customer should maintain awareness of any untried independent distributors being used. Counterfeit parts do exist, and some of these parts are so well packaged that only destructive test sampling or high failure rates in the product will lead to their discovery.

Whenever unknown suppliers are used, the original source of components should always be ascertained. Components also should go through a more rigorous incoming inspection. If either of those activities generates concerns, sending a component to its original manufacturer may offer an additional measure of safety, because the manufacturer can easily compare part numbers, lot codes and date codes with its database.

When parts from an unknown source must be used and can’t be tested prior to assembly, producing and testing a small sample run may be a good way to uncover problems quickly. Even if parts are legitimate, issues such as age, improper handling or reworked parts sold as new may drive higher-than-normal failure rates. The sample run also can help set cost expectations if the higher failure rates are deemed an acceptable tradeoff.

When supporting legacy products, it is important to realize component-sourcing problems due to obsolescence will occur at some point. Similarly, counterfeiting is prevalent enough in the electronics industry that it is no longer a matter of “if” illegitimate parts will end up in your legacy product, but “when.” Robust incoming inspection, sample builds and testing can help when tradeoffs to standard procurement practices must be made. More important, establishing a plan with your EMS partner, good supply chain qualification and management practices, proactive product lifecycle analysis, and regular redesigns can help mitigate the risks to customers and the bottom line.  CA

Dennis Gradler is director of business development for Industrial Solutions at Kimball Electronics Group; dennis.gradler@kimball.com.


A trying year was dramatized by two unfolding stories: the economy and Elcoteq.

When it comes time to write the story of the EMS industry in 2009, foremost will be the effects of the recession. There is another story, however: the dramatic fall of Elcoteq, the former cellphone wonder whose sales have roller-coastered from a high of 4.28 billion euros (about $6.17 billion at today’s conversion rates) to an estimated 1.54 billion euros ($2.2 billion) at the end of 2009.

Last year felt in many ways like the nightmare of 2001-02 all over again. Factory shutdowns among Tier 1 and II EMS companies were the norm, with Flextronics, Celestica, Sanmina-SCI, Plexus, Benchmark, Jabil and Elcoteq all cutting plants and people. Most of the closures came in Europe or the US, where even mighty Foxconn shuttered a 400,000 sq. ft. PC assembly and enclosures plant in Fullerton, CA, relocating or letting go some 600 workers. (Most but not all: Flextronics, for example, shuttered its factory in Kuala Lumpur, the former Casio Computer site it acquired in 2002.) The differences between last year and the tech recession of 2001 were telling, however, in that EMS companies this time around acted with accordance with clear and aggressive strategies. It was as if, after the last go-around, the majors decided that if and when another industry recession hit, they were not going to react passively.  

Key moves during the year include Asustek’s decision at year-end to split off its Pegatron manufacturing group, creating overnight one of the world’s largest ODM companies, and Venture’s decision late in the year to push harder into ODM work, which many see as more profitable than traditional EMS services. But while analysts and pundits continue to predict (guess?) that one or more of the top-tier EMS companies would be bought or closed, all – with the notable exception of one (see sidebar) – appear to have learned from past mistakes. They kept their inventories in line, their balance sheets clean, hoarded cash and refinanced near-term debt in order to ensure survival. They also cut fast and deep.

Almost every major EMS company saw revenues fall last year. For most companies, the first or second quarter was the trough, and sequential gains were seen through the rest of the year. In all probability, a return to 2008’s revenues will be a few years away. Among the top 20 companies, No. 1 Foxconn was an exception – barely – with sales growing less than 1%. Another outlier, No. 7 Cal-Comp Electronics, actually grew year-over-year the first two quarters, then fell behind by 8% year-over-year during the third, despite turning in its best revenue period of the calendar year. No. 13 Beyonics, Singapore’s largest EMS company, was up big and will be banging on the door of the Top 10 if it can keep up the pace.

 Table 1

With no major acquisitions or mergers during the year, there were few big changes to the Circuits Assembly Top 50 list. Falling off this year’s Circuits Assembly Top 50 is one company that, in hindsight, never belonged. Viasystems, which is relisting its shares, and as such began to break out its revenues, was in retrospect nowhere near the $504 million in sales we estimated last year. Hitachi Computer Products America announced in late fall it would exit the electronics manufacturing services business (albeit much of its EMS work was likely for its parent company). The biggest shock, however, was Jurong Hi-Tech, which came in at 26th last year. The Singaporean EMS company imploded under accounting irregularities and sold off its assets. (Needless to say, it did not make this year’s list.) And our apologies to Team Precision, Eolane, EPIQ and Electronic Network, all of which should have made last year’s rankings.

Besides Jurong, the two companies that appeared hardest hit in 2009 were Elcoteq and Surface Mount Technology (Holdings) Ltd. The former took a body blow from Nokia, which pulled all its assembly work in-house, taking an estimated $5 billion worth of EMS work offline. As a result, the company’s revenues fell more than 50% last year. Unlike Elcoteq, whose fate is heavily tied to the telecom and handheld sectors, Hong Kong’s SMT Holdings operates in more balanced markets. The company’s revenue comes primarily from industrial controls, computer peripherals, consumer and automotive, each of which makes up 15 to 35% of the firm’s revenues. Since the company does not disclose its major customers, it’s hard to discern why its sales drop (roughly 45%) was decidedly worse than the industry average.

Table 2

What is always interesting about tallying up the revenues of EMS companies is how inflated the sums are. Macroeconomists might disagree with me, but the amount of double-, triple- and quadruple-counting is staggering. The rule of thumb is about 80% of the assembly’s cost is for materials, and most EMS companies no longer buy on consignment, which means the value of single chip gets highly distorted as it makes its way through the supply chain.

Take your average PC. Intel makes the microprocessor and sells it for $250 to Foxconn. Foxconn builds the board and box and ships it to Dell. Dell sells the finished PC to the customer. Each company adds that $250 (or whatever markup it uses) to its revenues, which means that original chip has now accounted for $750 worth of sales. Throw in a retailer like Best Buy, and perhaps a distributor like Arrow and now that same chip is worth $1,250 in accounting terms by the time it reaches your desk. In doing so, the size of the industry becomes highly inflated. Not that the same scenario doesn’t play out in just about every sector imaginable, but it is something to keep in mind when considering the “real” size of “S” (services) in EMS.

[Ed.: For the pdf of the Top 50, click here.]

To sum up 2009, we learned that putting all your eggs in the basket of a consumer electronics customer could reap great dividends, or great hardships. Whether Elcoteq can return to glory or slips further into the abyss will likely be the story of 2010 too.  CA

[Sidebar] Elcoteq’s Miserable Year

No company took it on the chin worse last year than Elcoteq. Sales plunged about 55% year-over-year to an estimated 1,537 euros ($2.46 billion) and are now about 65% off their 2006 high. Global headcount was reduced about 50%, to 10,770. Factories in the US, Russia and China were either mothballed or shuttered. As if the economy itself wasn’t bad enough, its once largest customer, Nokia, pulled all its assembly in-house. As the year drew to a close, Elcoteq was scrambling to finalize a deal with Videocon to invest a reported 50 million euros to help shore up its balance sheet.

Circuits Assembly spoke with Elcoteq director, sales and product marketing Petra Ebner in November. Excerpts:

CA: You are in talks with Videocon to invest. What would this mean for Elcoteq?

PE: Videocon is a potential investor. We are currently in due diligence. The scheduled closing is year-end. It is not clear how this will look once a deal is done, but we’re not talking about them taking over. Elcoteq also is in talks with Kaifa [its largest shareholder].

We also have set certain goals: 1) Find an investor to increase our capitalization; 2) restructure debt – we are offering 15% of the dollar to our unsecured creditors; and 3) focus on more bottom-line customers. We are extending the market scope to higher-tech customers. Those end-products would be filters, RFID, industrial – companies that can benefit from our experience in communications.

CA: When your restructuring is finished, what will Elcoteq look like?

PE: We are now more focused on consumer electronics and systems solutions. We now have two factories in China; we closed Shenzhen. We have plants in Bangalore; Pécs, Hungary; Tallinn, Estonia; Monterrey, Mexico; Brazil. Russia has been mothballed. Pécs is the largest, with about 3,500 staff.

CA: Nokia decided to pull its assembly operations in-house. Any change in its plans?

PE: There are no signs from Nokia of business coming back.

CA: Given the product mix and choice of locations, it almost seems Foxconn has put a bulls-eye on Elcoteq’s back.

PE: Competing with Foxconn is a mission impossible. Customers are under so much cost pressure. Our focus is now the top line, not the bottom line. We want to grow with our existing customers, but we also want to see some different customers. Our focus is on lower volume and higher mix. When I came to Elcoteq, we had communications and industrial customers. I think we will return to that: more mid-sized customers; more box-build and tested finished product. Our target customer is $5 million to $10 million [in annual services provided].

CA: High-mix lines typically use different platforms than high-volume lines. Will your capitalization issues constrict your ability to invest in the right machines?

PE: We won’t need new equipment. In many cases, customers have supplied [it] as consigned equipment. We work with partners on plastics, etc.

CA: Is there an EMS company that Elcoteq is modeling its new strategy after?

PE: We haven’t picked anyone as a model.

CA: Is Elcoteq targeting alternative energy as a possible market?

PE: It’s not off our radar, but we are not thinking much about it. We are discussing with some solar companies about the equipment behind the panels – inverters, electronics, etc.

Elcoteq’s Sales, 2002-09 ($ millions)
2002    1840.2
2003    2235.7
2004    2,953.7
2005    4,169.0
2006    4,284.3
2007    4,042.9
2008    3443.2
2009    1537 (estimated)

Mike Buetow is editor-in-chief of Circuits Assembly (circuitsassembly.com); mbuetow@upmediagroup.com.

 

Labor and manufacturing processes will be severely reduced, but daunting barriers remain.

Many electronics industry veterans have heard about, but have limited understanding of, a breed of materials science called printed electronics. This field involves thin films, coatings and inks that perform electrical functions (conducting, semiconducting, insulating, etc.) similar to silicon electronics, with one exception: They are applied in a continuous and often soluble process across a variety of substrates (glass, paper, flexible and special polymers, etc.), as opposed to via a rigid and brittle silicon deposition process that yields products in batch and on a massive scale.

Why would such a technology represent a threat to a sector that has grown to be over a trillion dollars in size? The answer seems to be in the upside potential that printed electronics represents that concern printable (that is, configurable-on-demand) electronics circuits with integral qualities and capabilities involving multiple components such as sensors, amplifiers, antennas, battery, audio, display and wireless communications that today are manufactured and assembled as discrete components.

To appreciate printed electronics’ potential, it’s important to understand how it works technically. Consider traditional printing processes: flexography, gravure, inkjet, offset printing, screen printing, and thermal transfer. It is clear these methods have been developed to solve unique printing applications (newspapers, magazines, business documents, various other forms of mass printing), yet they also can be applied in electronics if the correct materials (organic and inorganic) can be produced to perform electrically functional applications. It turns out, this is what’s happening.

Printed electronic products are printable at different levels of resolution, conductivity (material blends), layers, sensitivity, size and speed. This can vary according to the particular kind of print technology being used: continuous, high-speed throughput, wide format, or simply low cost. As such, new products are being engendered that work outside the current paradigm of semiconductor and circuit board technology.

New Organic Electronics
Organic conductors are lighter, more flexible and less expensive than inorganic conductors. This makes them a desirable alternative in many applications, provided high performance is not essential. (While conductive, they are not as fast or efficient as inorganic materials such as silicon or copper.) But this difference creates the possibility of new applications, such as electronic paper or smart/flexible windows, which would be impossible using traditional technologies. Additionally, organic conductive polymers are expected to play an important role in the emerging science of molecular computing.

Until now, circuits built with organic materials have permitted only one type of charge to move through them. The latest research provides for charges that flow both ways by positive and negative charges. Over the past 30 years, researchers have been working to make organic electronics by layering two complicated patterns on top of one another: one that transports electrons and another that transports the positive holes. Recently, polymers have been created with a donor and an acceptor part that can transport both positive and negative charges in one material. The material would permit organic transistors and other information-processing devices to be built more simply, in a way that is more similar to how inorganic circuits are now made.

Yet, printed materials and conductive inks have begun to penetrate many established products and extend them in new ways. Kovio was the first company to make an entirely printed transistor-based RFID device with nanosilicon on stainless steel foil, and PolyIC on its website is promising kits of transistor RFID in 2010. To this end, antennae have been printed on certain RFID tags by companies such as Hyan Label (China), which can print directly on paper adhesive labels using reel-to-reel transfer.The number of transistors on these tags is small, therefore so is the performance, but potentially the cost is low if done in volume.


The primary goal of making organic transistors and integrated devices is to create circuits that are functional, inexpensive and printable on-demand. Organic thin-film circuits can take the place of silicon circuits in applications that require short turnaround times, flexibility and configurable performance. Moreover, organic materials can be rendered into a liquid form and applied at room temperature and atmospheric pressure, and thus are ideal for printable formats. Thus, this emerging breed of low-cost electronics can easily and quickly be applied via conventional ink-jet technologies at minimal cost.

By combining different print and production techniques, these polymer electronics can be engineered in conductor paths of any desired length, with print layers of 1/1,000 mm thick. As the process technology evolves, polymer electronics will be able to integrate hybrid designs so that transistors, diodes, memory, and displays can be provided in a continuous and mass-printed form. To date, polymer electronics have produced touch-sensitive sensors (keys), digital memory (16 to 96 bits, depending on the available surface area on the substrate), processor logic, photovoltaic batteries and color displays. Yet printable inorganic materials and composites are being developed that form a class of conductors with vastly better conductance and cost, ideal for producing superior printed laminar batteries, large electrophoretic, electroluminescent and electrochromic displays and solar cells. Moreover, inorganic materials have been applied to quantum dot devices and for transistor semiconductors such as logic and memory (zinc oxide) devices with 10 times the frequency and mobility of organic devices, in addition to greater stability.

Composites include oxides, amorphous mixtures and alloys. Increasingly, organic devices such as OLEDs employ a variety of inorganic materials such as boron, aluminum, titanium oxides and nitrides as barrier layers against water and oxygen. Similarly, aluminum, copper, silver and indium tin oxide are used as conductors, while calcium or magnesium can be developed as cathodes, cobalt-iron as nanodots, and iridium and europium in light-emitting layers on displays.

In 2009, inorganic semiconductors were being sold by companies such as Kovio for RFID tags due to much higher mobilities versus what is found in organic semiconductors. Similarly, companies such as Pelikon and elumin8 have applied inorganic materials to flexible electroluminescent displays that involve six to eight layers, including a copper-doped phosphor. These displays can be deposited on plastic or other film substrates that can cover meters of square area and are capable of emitting a range of colors.

Labor Reduction
Printed electronic circuits eliminate the required traditional subtractive wet process used today, which includes etching, stripping, metallization and copper plating. Without the costly process finishing, significant savings occur in labor, equipment and water consumption. These savings are further extended by way of wastewater treatment and sewer user fees, which involve the use of formaldehyde, chelators, ammonia, heavy metals and acids. Electric and gas consumptions see a notable reduction by eliminating the need to heat most of the wet processes, multilayer presses, and the large plant-wide demand for compressed air. HVAC reductions also are experienced due to greatly reduced exhaust requirements.

With the reduced amount of the many complex chemical processes to monitor, high overhead labor is eliminated. Printed electronic circuits (PEC) are expected to use 20% of the current labor requirement with the same square foot output. A printed circuit line of conductive silver and ceramic dielectric inks allows for a circuit to nearly equal the resistance properties of etched copper by controlling both the thickness and the width of the conductor, and therefore the overall resistance of the trace. Moreover, PEC permits the interconnection to be accomplished using highly conductive nano-inks without the need to drill holes or solder components. By eliminating the drilled via hole, printed circuits increase the interconnect reliability because the vias are 100% filled with silver ink and have equal resistance to a drilled plated via.

The special conductive inks permit a drilled hole to be filled with silver and re-drilled smaller to create a very strong conductive through-hole, if desired.


PEC gets particularly interesting when considering flexible surfaces or when active functions are required such as contamination detection or time/date sensitivity. Adidas, for example, has striking innovations involving smart clothing and fabrics that measure body data to help better manage health or achieve optimal athletic performance. The application that has made the most inroads in PEC can be found in “plastic” electronics, in which carbon compounds have created a new class of electrophoretic display used in today’s popular e-readers, such as the Kindle and Nook. Organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) can now be printed on a variety of flexible surfaces and open new applications in displays, signage and packaging.

Printed electronics will emerge in some of the most mundane and unobvious sectors. For example, PEC will have an enormous impact on the consumer sector, giving products special appeal by combining unique displays and signs, producing sounds and information on a product’s packaging. Cosmetics that rely on color shapes will be enhanced with unique lighting and audio features on the display shelf. Another application is foods or pharmaceutical packages that are time-sensitive for freshness, safety and potency, not to mention detection monitoring for toxins or efficacy. Perhaps more exciting, printed electronics is a precursor to many nanotechnology innovations, including engineering bionic limbs that integrate carbon nanotubes with human nerves, and artificial implanted hairs that detect pressure/temperature sensing, yet are dispersed in a flexible polymer composite skin. This stuff is now emerging and preeminent.

Barriers to Growth
The market for printed electronics has become reality, albeit not at the rate that many have predicted. The barrier to exponential growth seems to be the inability of suppliers to lower costs so that mass production can be adopted and demand generated. This is the classical economic dilemma with disruptive technologies when highly competitive and traditional alternatives exist that continue to innovate at similar rates and thus are difficult to displace.

NVR is now completing its second edition of its syndicated market research report titled The Worldwide Printed Electronics Market. This study looks at this technology, what it replaces and the opportunities it presents, but also the challenges that printed electronics faces. The results are disruptive, to say the least, and while the market potential is profound, just when and how is this expected to emerge? It turns out there are significant barriers to printed electronics’ ascendancy in the near future.

In the near future, printed applications concerning RFID and OLED displays will come, manufactured using OTFT (organic thin film transistor) technology. These technologies are penetrating a wide number of products, but not at the rate nor with the impact to displace traditional technologies. As costs decline and performance improves, customers will be justified to switch, and in many cases, entirely new design solutions will be created. For example, photovoltaic thin films are beginning to emerge along with battery storage technologies that could soon exceed the electrical efficiency of competing technologies and at lower costs. However, these solutions often involve tradeoffs such as a greater area to produce the same cost per watt, and so cannot be ubiquitous. Table 1 summarizes the worldwide market for printed electronics by product application in 2009.

Over the next 10 years, printed electronics will have direct impact in the RFID market, where low-cost printed tags with embed codes and biometric data can displace traditional barcode products by integral wireless technology in active devices. The implications are profound, including embedding ID information in passports, smart cards, transportation and freight, healthcare, manufacturing, prisons and agricultural tracking devices. Printable OLED displays will compete with tradition TFT devices in the areas of sub-displays, mobile phones, cameras, video, car audio and games where configuration, form-factor and power consumption are determining issues. Finally, printed PV thin films will gradually replace traditional poly-silicon technologies that so dominate the solar panel market today. Table 2 summarizes the worldwide market for printed electronics by product application in 2019.

The critical business distinction for printed electronics becomes one of scale, volume and cost/performance, whereby printed electronics will often be at a disadvantage to traditional electronics. Yet we have seen disruptions such as the demise of CRT televisions by more expensive flat screen TVs because of better performance and functionality. Why should printed electronics not displace certain semiconductor logic and memory components that integrate transistor circuits with display, antenna and audio technology in a single device?

The nexus lies in the R&D investment that exists within the semiconductor and flat panel industry that vastly exceeds any being made by printed electronics. Yet much of the breakthrough work is borne out of the national labs, government research agencies and corporate R&D departments, among such companies as 3M, Applied Materials, Fujitsu, HP, Intel, Samgsung, Sharp, Xerox and a host of more exciting lesser-knowns such as E-Ink, elumin8, Kovio, Nanoink, Plastic Logic, PolyIC, T-Ink, and Thin Film Electronics. These companies are incrementally producing breakthrough technologies that potentially will be the cornerstones of paradigm-shifting products that could make parts of the semiconductor industry obsolete and noncompetitive.

We live in a time when innovation is constantly evolving. While it is always difficult to predict the growth curve for disruptive technology, printed electronics stands to take the electronics industry in a new direction. What better time is there for those on the cutting-edge to make their value-proposition fresh and compelling? We look forward to monitoring these new innovations and measuring their cross-impact over the next several years.  CA


Randall Sherman
is president and CEO of New Venture Research Corp. (newventureresearch.com); rsherman@newventureresearch.com.

Will companies in the land of key suppliers remain powerhouses?

While much of Asia is recovering from the economic downturn, Japan still struggles. While some improvements can be seen, a difficult road is ahead. According to Japan’s Cabinet Office, the nation’s economic composite index rose 1.6 points to 95.9 in November, gaining ground for the eighth consecutive month, on a production recovery driven in part by China’s economic growth. This marks the first time since 1997 the index has moved up eight months in a row, prompting the Japanese government to state for the second straight month that the overall economy is improving. Manufacturers’ output continued to increase, with the industrial production index rising 2.6% and shipments of producer goods climbing 1.6%. Large-scale power usage grew 2.2%, signaling that factory-operating rates are improving. Sales in wholesale trade were also strong. However, the composite index was still below the levels seen before the financial crisis erupted in autumn 2008, and domestic demand remains sluggish. Sales for small and midsize manufacturers slipped 1.2% in November. According to BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Ltd., real GDP growth will likely be 4% for the December quarter. While Japanese GDP still places it as the second largest economy in the world, the country may not be considered the economic powerhouse that it once was. Toyota’s massive recall is the latest blow to the Japanese corporate image, at least for that of quality. The country is a far cry from the days back in 1989, when the late Sony founder Akio Morita and politician Shintaro Ishihara published the famous The Japan that Can Say No.

Will companies in the electronics industry remain powerhouses? The recent Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook, published by SEMI and TechSearch International, revealed that Japan-headquartered companies hold major shares of the semiconductor packaging and assembly materials business. Ibiden and Shinko Electric are the two top laminate substrate suppliers in terms of revenue. Japan-headquartered suppliers dominate the global leadframe market, holding more than 50% in revenues of the 2009 market. Japanese mold compound suppliers accounted for greater than 70% of the global mold compound market. These companies include Hitachi Chemical, Kyocera Chemical, Nitto Denko, Shin-Etsu Chemical, and Sumitomo Bakelite. Japanese companies such as Shin-Etsu and Namics are also major underfill material suppliers. In die attach paste, Japanese companies hold a smaller share, but in die attach film, Hitachi Chemical dominates the market and Nitto Denko is also a key player. In solder spheres, Senju Metal Industry has maintained its leadership position for many years. Many of these firms have been a great source of new material developments critical to our industry. While no one expects another plant explosion that cuts the world’s supply of a material, such as the one that took out one of Sumitomo Bakelite’s mold compound plants many years ago, it is critical that materials research continues to meet the industry’s evolving needs. As the industry moves into the next silicon technology nodes and ultra low-k dielectrics, new material development to meet packaging needs will be critical.

Unprecedented unemployment. Major Japanese companies are going through a period of layoffs not seen since before World War II. With recent changes in Japanese law regarding the use of temporary and part-time workers, large Japanese companies are not only closing plants, but are shedding large segments of their workforces. Even Japanese subsidiaries of multinational companies have closed operations, such as the closing of Nokia’s R&D center in Japan, which put approximately 200 researchers out of work. All these practices have created a large number of “consultants” available for hire – a development that may be beneficial to overseas companies seeking assistance gaining greater understanding of business practices and means to better penetrating Japanese markets.

What does the future hold for Japanese electronics companies? Will they still be able to maintain the strong commitment to R&D in electronic materials and other areas? Will the latest mergers between companies such as NEC and Renesas result in a stronger, more able electronics company? What future mergers can be expected?
A prediction: Japanese companies led by “maverick” thinkers in executive roles will be the ones that prosper. The fate of Japanese corporations that do not evolve to meet the new economic challenges is uncertain.  CA

References
1. Nikkei, Jan. 9, 2010.

E. Jan Vardaman is president of TechSearch International (techsearchinc.com); jan@techsearchinc.com. Her column appears bimonthly. 

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